Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:57:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f9b…bc2f sports 589 markets active 0h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$10,359 (-7%) realized −$10,410 · open +$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate63%368W / 219L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$242per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Fees−$1,159est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$151now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,322
7 days−$1,933
14 days−$1,399
30 days−$5,885
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$11,175
other 0% +$21
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +0.4% -9.2% 58% 52% -28.5%
≤30d 221 -0.5% -10.0% 61% 55% -19.9%
≤90d 383 +0.9% -8.7% 61% 56% -20.8%
all 587 +1.8% -7.9% 63% 57% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 57% -16.7%
10% -16.7% 48% -24.6%
15% -24.8% 36% -31.9%
20% -32.1% 25% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -0% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$219 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$151
Realized−$10,410
Unrealized+$51
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses368 / 219
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$1,159
Open positions2
Markets (closed)587 / 589
History coverage147d
Avg bet$242
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 587 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ 100¢ $50 $101 +$51 (+102%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 50¢ 50¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $121 −$4 -3%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $91 +$72 +79%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $10 −$8 -82%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$12 +57%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $20 +$7 +32%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $1 $0 +27%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $45 +$10 +23%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $40 +$22 +54%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $52 +$28 +54%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 15 $745 −$745 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 15 $685 −$685 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $494 −$494 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $167 −$16 -10%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$6 +27%
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs G2 NORD (+1.5) Jun 13 $302 +$144 +48%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $50 +$23 +46%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $87 +$49 +57%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $137 −$137 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $645 −$645 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $738 +$539 +73%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $232 −$33 -14%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $151 +$57 +38%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $101 −$48 -48%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $152 +$79 +52%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $61 +$25 +42%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $18 +$6 +35%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $110 +$17 +16%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 12 $3 +$6 +197%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $343 +$357 +104%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $30 +$3 +8%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 12 $214 −$214 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 11 $137 +$207 +152%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $182 −$182 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $326 −$216 -66%
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $215 +$1 +1%
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $82 +$48 +59%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $101 +$26 +26%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $202 −$108 -54%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $152 −$122 -80%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $135 +$32 +24%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 Win Jun 11 $102 −$65 -64%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $51 +$99 +194%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $123 −$61 -50%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $353 −$56 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 50¢ $40 5m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 50¢ $10 5m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $87 42m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $20 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $30 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 80¢ $70 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $126 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 21¢ $6 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 70¢ $20 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 40¢ $12 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 40¢ $12 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 50¢ $30 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $38 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 65¢ $10 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 65¢ $30 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 49¢ $20 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 49¢ $30 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 58¢ $15 3h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 14¢ $2 4h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 73¢ $10 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 8h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 75¢ $20 9h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 60¢ $5 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 15h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 78¢ $1 15h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 92¢ $5 15h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 79¢ $10 15h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 78¢ $10 15h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Vitality 78¢ $1 15h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Vitality 100¢ $62 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $151.27 · official $151.27 (match) · 2130 history records