Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:44:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
0F 0x0f9a…0a53 crypto 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (73 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-8%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate56%15W / 12L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day73.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$7
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (73 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +4.1% -5.8% 56% 41% +2.7%
≤30d 27 +4.1% -5.8% 56% 41% +2.7%
≤90d 27 +4.1% -5.8% 56% 41% +2.7%
all 27 +4.1% -5.8% 56% 41% +2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.8% 41% +2.7%
10% ← realistic here -14.8% 37% -7.1%
15% -23.0% 33% -16.1%
20% -30.6% 30% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses15 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day73.0
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Up 21¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +36%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +104%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +99%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +79%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -88%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +129%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +58%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +67%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$4 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $1 8m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 9m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $2 11m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 12m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 14m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 17m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $0 17m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 18m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 19m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 20m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $1 20m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 23m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 25m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 44m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 45m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $0 46m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 46m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $1 47m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 47m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $1 48m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 49m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $1 52m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 52m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 59m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.17 · official $1.17 (match) · 77 history records