Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:07:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f99…6734 other 404 markets active 0h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,035 (-4%) realized −$982 · open −$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate14%55W / 346L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day18.6pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$381
7 days−$1,007
14 days−$1,157
30 days−$1,225
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$716
world 17% −$149
politics 9% −$136
tech 8% −$128
sports 5% −$49
finance 5% −$46
crypto 2% −$25
culture 1% −$18
weather 1% −$8
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 247 -8.1% -16.8% 2% 0% -14.0%
≤30d 400 -8.3% -17.0% 14% 1% -14.1%
≤90d 401 -8.3% -17.0% 14% 1% -14.1%
all 401 -8.3% -17.0% 14% 1% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 1% -14.1%
10% -24.9% 0% -22.3%
15% -32.2% 0% -29.8%
20% -38.8% 0% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized−$982
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses55 / 346
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions3
Markets (closed)401 / 404
History coverage69d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day18.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 401 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? Yes 53¢ 42¢ $106 $85 −$21 (-20%)
Will Denis Bećirović be the Bosniak Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election? No 69¢ 52¢ $45 $33 −$11 (-25%)
Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $37.5B by June 30? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $22 $1 −$21 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Top Esports win the MSI 2026? Jun 16 $107 −$2 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 16 $20 −$2 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 16 $73 −$2 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 16 $126 −$4 -3%
Will Surf launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $4 −$1 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? Jun 16 $16 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 17? Jun 16 $0 $0 +6%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 16 $396 −$13 -3%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? Jun 16 $70 −$5 -7%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 in June? Jun 16 $220 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? Jun 16 $18 $0 -1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? Jun 16 $72 −$7 -10%
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Jun 16 $94 −$4 -4%
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $339 −$5 -2%
Will Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 NL East title? Jun 16 $245 −$4 -2%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $228 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 16 $46 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? Jun 16 $30 −$3 -9%
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 16 $50 −$5 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 17? Jun 16 $4 $0 -1%
Will Curaçao finish last in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 16 $26 −$3 -10%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 16 $62 −$1 -1%
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Jun 16 $76 −$3 -4%
Will Haiti be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 16 $189 −$4 -2%
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $52 −$2 -3%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in June? Jun 16 $62 −$1 -2%
Will King Abdullah II sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 16 $85 −$5 -6%
Will there be 15+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -2%
Will Iraq finish last in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stag Jun 16 $0 $0 +9%
Will Brazil be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 W Jun 16 $188 −$13 -7%
Will Reya launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 16 $19 −$2 -8%
Will MagicBlock launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $45 −$7 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 16 $4 $0 -12%
Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Jun 16 $77 −$4 -5%
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $78 −$3 -3%
Will MagicBlock launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 16 $141 −$5 -4%
Will Apyx launch a token by September 30, 2027? Jun 16 $64 −$5 -8%
Will Puffpaw launch a token by March 31, 2027? Jun 16 $140 −$10 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 16 $3 $0 -5%
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $25 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? Jun 16 $23 −$1 -3%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 16 $7 −$1 -12%
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? Jun 16 $188 −$11 -6%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $150 −$2 -1%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Jun 15 $63 −$1 -2%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 15 $600 −$17 -3%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 in June? Jun 15 $75 −$4 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 17? Jun 15 $1 $0 -17%
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Jun 15 $138 −$6 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 11m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 11m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 11m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 11m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 11m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 11m
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? BUY Yes 53¢ $106 49m
Will Top Esports win the MSI 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will Top Esports win the MSI 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will Top Esports win the MSI 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $18 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $20 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $71 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $73 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $122 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $126 1h
Will Surf launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 2h
Will Surf launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 82¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 84¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 17? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 3h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 75¢ $150 3h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 77¢ $154 3h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? SELL Yes 32¢ $13 3h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? SELL Yes 34¢ $52 3h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? BUY Yes 35¢ $70 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 3h
Will Top Esports win the MSI 2026? SELL No 92¢ $62 5h
Will Top Esports win the MSI 2026? SELL No 92¢ $41 5h
Will Top Esports win the MSI 2026? BUY No 94¢ $105 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.33 · official $119.33 (match) · 1379 history records