Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:22:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f99…c567 world 108 markets active 1h ago coverage 475d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$43 (-0%) realized −$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate39%41W / 65L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days+$1
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% −$37
other 33% +$4
sports 18% +$1
politics 10% +$5
finance 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% −$17
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.8% -11.2% 11% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 27 -0.1% -9.6% 44% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 48 -3.2% -12.5% 40% 2% -9.7%
all 106 -2.2% -11.5% 39% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 2% -9.8%
10% -20.0% 1% -18.5%
15% -27.7% 1% -26.3%
20% -34.8% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

475d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses41 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions2
Markets (closed)106 / 108
History coverage475d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 25 $252 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 25 $143 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $3 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $130 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $294 −$2 -1%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 22 $18 −$2 -12%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $398 +$2 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $410 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $7 $0 -4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $160 +$1 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $223 −$4 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $151 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $143 +$6 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $264 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $119 +$4 +3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $386 +$2 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $265 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $126 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $139 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $125 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $2 $0 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $171 +$1 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 02 $139 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $261 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $44 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $41 −$1 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $153 −$3 -2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $142 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $97 −$6 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $133 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $101 −$24 -24%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $185 +$1 +0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 27 $101 +$12 +12%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 24 $29 −$1 -4%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 24 $44 −$17 -38%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $57 +$2 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $57 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $1,084 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $985 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $985 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $151 −$3 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $985 +$3 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 15 $26 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 15 $77 +$2 +3%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 14 $4 $0 -1%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 14 $1,083 −$1 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $1,083 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 20 $6 −$4 -76%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 24 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $142 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $142 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $62 16h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $48 16h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $110 16h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $143 21h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $143 21h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 38h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 39h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $3 41h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $56 41h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $67 41h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $4 41h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $12 45h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $118 45h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $6 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $123 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $132 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 15¢ $16 3d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $18 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $134 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $134 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $29 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $45 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $60 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $134 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $134 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $134 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.78 · official $2.75 (match) · 374 history records