Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:54:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0F 0x0f99…cc23 crypto 174 markets active 2h ago coverage 403d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$91 (+1%) realized +$108 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate74%128W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$85
14 days+$196
30 days+$201
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% −$69
sports 19% +$21
other 17% +$164
tech 5% −$35
finance 2% +$14
world 2% −$27
culture 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +14.6% +3.7% 77% 69% +3.1%
≤30d 25 +13.2% +2.5% 84% 56% +5.2%
≤90d 25 +13.2% +2.5% 84% 56% +5.2%
all 172 -3.3% -12.5% 74% 31% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 31% -8.7%
10% -20.9% 16% -17.4%
15% -28.5% 12% -25.4%
20% -35.5% 8% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$18 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

403d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized+$108
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses128 / 44
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)172 / 174
History coverage403d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Ecuador 65¢ 42¢ $50 $33 −$17 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $50 +$17 +34%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$36 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$20 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$28 +55%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$27 -54%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $41 +$36 +90%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $50 +$8 +16%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $44 +$16 +35%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$28 +55%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $50 +$4 +8%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 +$7 +14%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$28 +109%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $50 +$15 +31%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +43%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $14 +$2 +11%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $100 +$6 +6%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 08 $93 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +5%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 07 $43 $0 +1%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 06 $93 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Mar 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-24? Feb 24 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-24? Feb 24 $100 +$42 +42%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-18? Feb 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-17? Feb 17 $46 +$26 +56%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on February 17? Feb 17 $99 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Feb 17 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Feb 17 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Feb 17 $1 +$1 +93%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 17 $105 −$7 -7%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on February 17? Feb 17 $86 −$8 -9%
Gold (GC) Up or Down on February 17? Feb 17 $99 +$15 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Feb 12 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Feb 12 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Feb 12 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Feb 12 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Feb 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Feb 09 $109 +$1 +1%
Gold (GC) Up or Down on February 9? Feb 09 $106 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Feb 05 $5 −$2 -43%
Gold (GC) Up or Down on February 4? Feb 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Open Sud de France: Arthur Gea vs Tomas Machac Feb 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Feb 05 $17 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 11AM ET Feb 05 $509 +$80 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Feb 05 $543 −$33 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 65¢ $51 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 74¢ $50 32h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 41¢ $21 5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $20 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 38¢ $23 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $41 6d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Japan 96¢ $58 6d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 83¢ $32 6d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 83¢ $4 6d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 83¢ $13 6d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 74¢ $44 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 94¢ $57 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $50 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $25 8d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 76¢ $50 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $145 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 10d
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 90¢ $4 12d
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 90¢ $9 12d
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $2 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.07 · official $83.07 (match) · 462 history records