Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:30:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
0F 0x0f97…48d6 crypto 104 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$130 (+13%) realized +$143 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate55%54W / 44L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day41.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% +$82
sports 11% +$2
other 11% +$21
world 0% $0
politics 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 +0.2% -9.3% 55% 44% +3.3%
≤30d 98 +0.2% -9.3% 55% 44% +3.3%
≤90d 98 +0.2% -9.3% 55% 44% +3.3%
all 98 +0.2% -9.3% 55% 44% +3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 44% +3.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 38% -6.6%
15% -25.9% 30% -15.6%
20% -33.2% 24% -23.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized+$143
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses54 / 44
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)98 / 104
History coverage5d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day41.8
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Netherlands 57¢ 50¢ $100 $87 −$13 (-13%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $2 +$12 +596%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 29 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$1 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 29 $2 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 29 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 29 $6 +$5 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 29 $17 −$6 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 29 $21 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$8 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 29 $11 +$5 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 29 $20 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 29 $30 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 29 $15 +$6 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 29 $50 +$2 +5%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 29, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 28, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 28, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$2 +152%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 28, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 29 $15 +$10 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 29 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 29 $15 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 29 $28 +$87 +311%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 29 $31 −$27 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 29 $61 +$21 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$4 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 29 $27 −$11 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 29 $16 +$8 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $2 +$5 +259%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Argentina? Jun 28 $3 −$2 -52%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $33 +$19 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Netherlands 57¢ $101 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 14¢ $2 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY 15¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 19h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY 10¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $4 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.29 · official $94.29 (match) · 266 history records