Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:58:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0F 0x0f8f…3adf crypto 745 markets active 2h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$323 (-4%) realized −$323 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate48%357W / 387L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$61
7 days+$240
14 days+$381
30 days+$223
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$858
other 26% +$411
sports 1% −$2
world 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -12.9% -21.2% 47% 41% +5.1%
≤30d 237 -8.5% -17.2% 49% 41% -3.2%
≤90d 512 -12.0% -20.4% 44% 38% -12.2%
all 744 -9.3% -17.9% 48% 40% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 40% -13.8%
10% -25.8% 32% -22.0%
15% -32.9% 24% -29.6%
20% -39.5% 18% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$323
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses357 / 387
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)744 / 745
History coverage162d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 744 Trades
no open positions (107 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2AM ET Jun 23 $65 +$61 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$3 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$4 -69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$3 +90%
HYPE Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
HYPE Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$14 -55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$12 -60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$5 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET Jun 17 $45 +$8 +17%
HYPE Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $139 −$93 -67%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $104 +$4 +4%
HYPE Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET Jun 17 $129 −$126 -98%
HYPE Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET Jun 17 $103 +$71 +69%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $62 +$34 +55%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
HYPE Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $640 +$430 +67%
HYPE Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET Jun 16 $259 +$180 +70%
HYPE Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$12 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET Jun 14 $13 −$10 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +117%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +42%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -82%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 2PM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +19%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 11AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +41%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 10AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7AM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $126 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $65 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $6 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 5d
HYPE Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 5d
HYPE Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $5 6d
HYPE Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $3 6d
HYPE Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $3 6d
HYPE Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $25 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $8 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $21 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $12 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $53 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $45 6d
HYPE Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $46 6d
HYPE Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $15 6d
HYPE Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $21 6d
HYPE Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $21 6d
HYPE Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $21 6d
HYPE Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $21 6d
HYPE Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $21 6d
HYPE Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $21 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1819 history records