Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:52:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f8c…81c3 crypto 490 markets active 5d ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$214 (-11%) realized −$214 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%239W / 251L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$30
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$221
other 1% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -48.5% -53.4% 11% 11% -53.6%
≤30d 51 -26.4% -33.4% 25% 25% -29.0%
≤90d 490 -12.2% -20.6% 49% 49% -21.2%
all 490 -12.2% -20.6% 49% 49% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.6% 49% -21.2%
10% -28.2% 49% -28.8%
15% -35.1% 48% -35.7%
20% -41.5% 43% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$214
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses239 / 251
Open positions0
Markets (closed)490 / 490
History coverage69d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 490 Trades
no open positions (75 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$2 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$3 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$4 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$4 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 02 $5 +$8 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 02 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$4 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$4 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 02 $5 +$5 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$4 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 02 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 02 $5 +$13 +257%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 02 $5 +$8 +154%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $0 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1114 history records