Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:27:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
0F 0x0f8b…6c3b sports 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 566d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$641 (+25%) realized +$646 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%36W / 37L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$798now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$696
7 days+$705
14 days+$691
30 days+$701
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$121
other 47% +$826
world 3% −$57
economics 1% +$7
crypto 0% −$10
politics 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +126.6% +105.1% 67% 67% +242.8%
≤30d 6 +49.3% +35.1% 50% 50% +197.1%
≤90d 11 +11.9% +1.3% 45% 45% +110.7%
all 73 -4.4% -13.5% 49% 49% +24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 49% +24.2%
10% -21.8% 48% +12.4%
15% -29.4% 47% +1.5%
20% -36.3% 34% -8.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 59% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +133% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +37% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$18 · ×2.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.95 per $1 lost it wins $1.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

566d coverage
Net worth$798
Realized+$646
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses36 / 37
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)73 / 75
History coverage566d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? No 85¢ 84¢ $479 $476 −$3 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? No 89¢ 88¢ $324 $322 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $157 +$696 +442%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $76 +$29 +38%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 09 $20 −$19 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $11 −$10 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Jun 08 $18 −$4 -24%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 23 $25 +$10 +40%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 30 $19 −$19 -99%
Athletics vs. New York Yankees Apr 09 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-31? Apr 09 $52 +$51 +97%
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 31 $65 +$25 +38%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gro Mar 23 $57 −$57 -100%
Howard Bison vs. UMBC Retrievers Mar 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Rockets vs. Nuggets Mar 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02? Mar 11 $31 +$79 +257%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Mar 02 $50 +$56 +113%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-02-14? Feb 20 $36 +$29 +82%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 14 $45 +$20 +45%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Feb 08 $23 +$17 +72%
Will Real Sociedad win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 28 $82 −$41 -50%
Lakers vs. Nuggets Jan 27 $36 +$27 +75%
Golden Knights vs. Sharks Jan 20 $32 +$23 +72%
Troy vs. Jacksonville State Dec 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans Dec 11 $44 −$44 -100%
Cowboys vs. Lions Dec 11 $21 +$14 +67%
Magic vs. 76ers Dec 04 $24 +$20 +85%
Bills vs. Texans Nov 20 $53 −$53 -100%
Heat vs. Knicks Nov 20 $38 +$18 +49%
Sabres vs. Bruins Nov 14 $22 +$23 +108%
Wild vs. Capitals Oct 30 $10 +$8 +85%
Panthers vs. Flyers Oct 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Iceland win on 2025-10-10? Oct 13 $19 +$10 +49%
Bengals vs. Broncos Oct 10 $13 +$3 +25%
Will New York City FC win on 2025-09-24? Sep 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Cubs vs. Pirates Sep 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Kansas State vs. Arizona Sep 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Arizona State vs. Mississippi State Sep 12 $10 +$22 +212%
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-08-31? Sep 06 $8 +$8 +92%
Will Valencia win on 2025-08-29? Aug 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-08-22? Aug 29 $11 +$7 +70%
Dream vs Storm Aug 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Astros vs. Marlins Aug 13 $13 +$12 +92%
Dodgers vs. Reds Aug 06 $12 +$8 +70%
Reds vs. Mets Jul 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Cubs vs. Yankees Jul 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Mets vs. Orioles Jul 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Athletics vs. Rays Jul 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Braves vs. Mets Jul 09 $8 +$7 +79%
Pirates vs. Cubs Jun 24 $14 +$6 +45%
Brewers vs. Phillies Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Cubs vs. Phillies Jun 14 $8 +$6 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $325 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 85¢ $481 6h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $157 2d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $76 5d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 43¢ $20 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? BUY No 20¢ $11 7d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 65¢ $18 23d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 71¢ $25 28d
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves BUY Nuggets 68¢ $19 46d
Athletics vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 67¢ $15 67d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-31? BUY Yes 50¢ $52 76d
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils BUY Duke Blue Devils 72¢ $65 80d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gro BUY FURIA 37¢ $57 84d
Howard Bison vs. UMBC Retrievers BUY UMBC Retrievers 52¢ $22 90d
Rockets vs. Nuggets BUY Rockets 31¢ $50 95d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02? BUY No 28¢ $31 105d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 47¢ $50 115d
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-02-14? BUY No 55¢ $36 121d
Seahawks vs. Patriots BUY Seahawks 69¢ $45 127d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A BUY FURIA 58¢ $23 133d
Will Real Sociedad win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL Yes $41 138d
Will Real Sociedad win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY Yes $82 139d
Lakers vs. Nuggets BUY Lakers 57¢ $36 145d
Golden Knights vs. Sharks BUY Golden Knights 58¢ $32 154d
Troy vs. Jacksonville State BUY Troy 43¢ $21 180d
Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans BUY Trail Blazers 61¢ $44 185d
Cowboys vs. Lions BUY Lions 60¢ $21 193d
Magic vs. 76ers BUY Magic 54¢ $24 202d
Bills vs. Texans BUY Bills 71¢ $53 206d
Heat vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 67¢ $38 213d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $797.87 · official $797.87 (match) · 131 history records