Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:12:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f88…544a crypto 1100 markets active 1h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$272 (-4%) realized −$272 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate83%913W / 187L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day48.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$64
7 days−$64
14 days−$64
30 days−$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$340
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -41.3% -46.8% 50% 14% -28.7%
≤30d 535 +1.9% -7.8% 86% 32% -12.4%
≤90d 1100 -0.7% -10.1% 83% 25% -14.1%
all 1100 -0.7% -10.1% 83% 25% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 25% -14.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 10% -22.3%
15% -26.6% 4% -29.8%
20% -33.8% 2% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$272
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses913 / 187
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1100 / 1100
History coverage39d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day48.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1100 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $45 −$35 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $40 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $27 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 31 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 31 $2 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 31 $12 −$11 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 31 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 31 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 31 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 31 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 31 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 31 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 31 $8 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 31 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 31 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 31 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 30 $5 +$5 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 30 $2 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 30 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 30 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 30 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 30 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 30 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 30 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 30 $1 +$1 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 27 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 27 $1 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2950 history records