Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:48:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f85…1d72 crypto 95 markets active 0h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$103 (+13%) realized +$97 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate35%27W / 50L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$171now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$69
7 days+$69
14 days+$69
30 days+$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$44
other 47% +$70
sports 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-37.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -37.4% -43.3% 33% 33% +13.4%
≤30d 18 -37.4% -43.3% 33% 33% +13.4%
≤90d 77 -31.0% -37.6% 35% 31% -6.7%
all 77 -31.0% -37.6% 35% 31% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.6% 31% -6.7%
10% -43.6% 19% -15.6%
15% -49.0% 12% -23.7%
20% -54.0% 6% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$171
Realized+$97
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses27 / 50
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions16
Markets (closed)77 / 95
History coverage51d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 43¢ 48¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+13%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 66¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 44¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-19%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-2 Jun 20 $65 −$34 -52%
Netherlands to win the second half? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-0 Jun 20 $4 +$5 +131%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $32 +$8 +25%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $22 −$22 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $3 +$3 +93%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 +$12 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 +$7 +48%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Neither team to score first? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $100 +$105 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 01 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 01 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 01 $3 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 01 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 01 $3 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 01 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 01 $1 $0 +36%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on April 30? May 01 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 30 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 30 $9 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 30 $4 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Apr 30 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 30 $2 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 30 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 30 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 30 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 30 $10 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Apr 30 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Apr 30 $6 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Apr 30 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 30 $11 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 30 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 30 $11 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 30 $11 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 30 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 30 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 30 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 30 $3 +$1 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-2 BUY 23¢ $39 28m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND BUY 5¢ $2 30m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-2 SELL 24¢ $31 32m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 35m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 35m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 23¢ $1 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 BUY 20¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 98¢ $40 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 1h
Netherlands to win the second half? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-0 BUY 43¢ $4 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $8 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 93¢ $20 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 42¢ $1 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 14h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 14h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 14h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 14h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 14h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 15h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 15h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 16h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $170.60 · official $207.79 · 344 history records