Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:47:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0F 0x0f84…60fb other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 34d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$490 (-9%) realized −$307 · open −$183
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,323per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$3,381now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 34d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$520
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-34.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -27.2% -34.2% 0% 0% -33.4%
≤30d 2 -27.2% -34.2% 0% 0% -33.4%
≤90d 2 -27.2% -34.2% 0% 0% -33.4%
all 2 -27.2% -34.2% 0% 0% -33.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.2% 0% -33.4%
10% -40.5% 0% -39.8%
15% -46.2% 0% -45.6%
20% -51.5% 0% -50.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$168 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$3,381
Realized−$307
Unrealized−$183
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)2 / 4
History coverage34d
Avg bet$1,323
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 22¢ $2,065 $2,314 +$250 (+12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $1,500 $1,067 −$433 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $13 −$4 -28%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $1,264 −$333 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $937 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $9 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $931 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 6d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 18d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 24d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 27d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $338 27d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $340 27d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 27d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 33d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $920 33d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1,537 33d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1,537 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,381.25 · official $3,381.25 (match) · 50 history records