Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:59:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f84…2e49 world 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 539d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate46%19W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$5
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$2
politics 42% +$3
other 13% +$1
tech 1% +$1
economics 0% $0
sports 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.4% -9.2% 38% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 20 -0.8% -10.2% 25% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 32 -0.1% -9.6% 38% 0% -9.5%
all 41 -2.1% -11.4% 46% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 2% -9.7%
10% -19.9% 2% -18.4%
15% -27.6% 2% -26.3%
20% -34.7% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

539d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses19 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage539d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 78¢ 78¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 22 $25 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $25 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 21 $38 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $48 $0 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $31 +$1 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $45 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $39 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $38 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $34 $0 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $37 −$3 -8%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $32 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $37 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $40 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $72 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $15 −$1 -8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $10 $0 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $39 +$1 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Apr 24 $52 +$2 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026? Apr 24 $57 −$1 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 22 $102 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026? Apr 22 $24 +$2 +7%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 21 $35 +$1 +3%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $223 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $223 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $229 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 01 $223 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $222 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 31 $222 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 06 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 25 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 2–9? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 26 $4 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Zelensky" at CPAC conference on Saturday? Mar 04 $2 +$3 +108%
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Feb 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Feyenoord vs. AC Milan end in a draw? Feb 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Global heat increase less than 1.22°C for 2024? Jan 10 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $36 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 28h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $1 28h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $4 35h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $13 35h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $17 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $35 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $38 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $15 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $3 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $11 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $8 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $9 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $25 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $39 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $39 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $9 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $32 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $31 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $5 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $2 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.11 · official $36.11 (match) · 133 history records