Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:39:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

0F 0x0f80…758d other 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip

Net edge-13%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$853per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 26d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-9.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-0.1%	-9.6%	0%	0%	-9.6%
≤30d	3	-0.1%	-9.6%	33%	0%	-9.6%
≤90d	3	-0.1%	-9.6%	33%	0%	-9.6%
all	3	-0.1%	-9.6%	33%	0%	-9.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-9.6%	0%	-9.6%
10%	-18.2%	0%	-18.3%
15%	-26.1%	0%	-26.2%
20%	-33.4%	0%	-33.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -0% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.01 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$2

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Open positions0

Markets (closed)3 / 3

History coverage26d

Avg bet$853

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 3 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series?	Jun 24	$1,261	−$2	-0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series?	Jun 23	$1,262	−$2	-0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Jun 01	$37	$0	+0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series?	SELL No	100¢	$1,260	1h
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series?	BUY No	100¢	$1,261	26h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series?	SELL No	100¢	$1,261	26h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series?	BUY No	100¢	$1,262	2d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	SELL No	100¢	$9	23d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	SELL No	100¢	$28	23d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	BUY No	100¢	$37	26d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 7 history records