Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:35:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f7b…4bf8 other 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 447d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+2%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate37%16W / 27L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$21
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% $0
world 39% +$23
politics 7% −$2
crypto 4% $0
tech 3% $0
sports 2% $0
weather 1% $0
economics 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 11 +18.4% +7.1% 45% 18% -5.4%
≤90d 11 +18.4% +7.1% 45% 18% -5.4%
all 43 +2.5% -7.3% 37% 5% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 5% -7.4%
10% -16.1% 5% -16.3%
15% -24.2% 5% -24.4%
20% -31.7% 2% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×6.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.28 per $1 lost it wins $8.28
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

447d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses16 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage447d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $62 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $13 +$21 +159%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $50 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 06 $47 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $51 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $134 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 30 $42 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $27 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $46 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $42 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $3 +$1 +40%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 15 $1 $0 +3%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jun 06 $12 $0 -1%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 03 $13 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 5-8%? Jun 02 $13 $0 -2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by less than 5%? Jun 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 31 $13 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? May 30 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 66°F or below on May May 29 $13 $0 -0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? May 29 $13 $0 +2%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 27 $13 $0 -0%
Will 'The Apothecary Diaries' win Crunchyroll Anime of the Year 2025? May 26 $13 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $130 in May? May 24 $12 $0 -1%
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2025 French Open? May 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? May 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will 'Turbo Granny' win Crunchyroll's Best Supporting Character Award May 23 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 22 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? May 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%? May 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2025? May 20 $12 $0 +1%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? May 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will Austria qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 15 $14 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb May 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? May 14 $14 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? May 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 10 $16 $0 -2%
Will Kanye launch a coin in March? Mar 30 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $84,000 on March 28? Mar 29 $16 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $31 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $62 8h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $62 12h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 72¢ $6 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 72¢ $28 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 28¢ $9 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $20 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $6 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $26 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 67¢ $47 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 67¢ $47 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 56¢ $47 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 56¢ $47 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $4 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $45 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $2 13d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $47 13d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $42 19d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $42 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 45¢ $27 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $27 19d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $46 19d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $46 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $42 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $42 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 21d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $15 21d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 28¢ $17 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.72 · official $31.20 (match) · 119 history records