Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:44:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f7a…0875 other 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 28L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$465per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% −$3
other 25% −$4
world 15% −$2
tech 9% −$1
sports 9% −$2
economics 7% −$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 26 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 29 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$852) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage91d
Avg bet$465
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 28 $1,170 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 28 $53 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 28 $1,154 $0 -0%
Will Mustafa Hijri be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 27 $1,147 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 27 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2026 World Series? Jun 27 $1,241 −$2 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 27 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 27 $1,161 −$2 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? Apr 21 $46 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $32 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $23 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in second place in the first round of Apr 18 $106 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $32 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on April 16? Apr 17 $31 $0 +1%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,683 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $12 $0 -0%
Will Jelena Ostapenko win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Apr 17 $806 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $849 −$1 -0%
Will Mauricio Cárdenas win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian preside Apr 16 $852 $0 +0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $829 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 15 $887 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 15 $44 $0 -0%
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Apr 15 $845 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 02 $146 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets in April 2026? Apr 02 $54 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $22 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Mar 29 $144 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 29 $36 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 29 $23 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,169 1h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $53 1h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 1h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,130 1h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 1h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 1h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will Mustafa Hijri be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $850 2h
Will Mustafa Hijri be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $296 2h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 2h
Will Mustafa Hijri be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,147 2h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $50 22h
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $1,239 22h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $20 22h
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,230 22h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $13 22h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $20 22h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $17 23h
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $11 23h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $896 23h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $20 23h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $262 23h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $1,161 23h
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? SELL No 100¢ $46 67d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $32 67d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? BUY No 100¢ $36 67d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 67d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? BUY No 100¢ $10 67d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $16 67d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $14 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 95 history records