Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:22:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f7a…d347 world 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 524d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-1%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate34%28W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$4
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$6
other 27% −$10
politics 12% $0
sports 9% $0
finance 1% +$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.8% -8.8% 86% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 25 -0.3% -9.8% 44% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 75 -0.6% -10.0% 36% 0% -9.7%
all 82 -2.2% -11.5% 34% 1% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 1% -10.0%
10% -20.0% 1% -18.6%
15% -27.7% 1% -26.5%
20% -34.8% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

524d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses28 / 54
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)82 / 84
History coverage524d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 95¢ 94¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $108 −$4 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $32 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $29 +$1 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $50 $0 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $32 +$1 +3%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $34 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $32 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $32 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $34 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $32 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $63 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $3 $0 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $71 −$3 -5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $40 +$1 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $68 −$4 -5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $102 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $32 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $72 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 27 $68 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $46 +$1 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $114 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $6 −$1 -9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $47 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $33 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 17 $44 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $35 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $37 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $4 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 11 $31 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 10 $29 +$3 +10%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $62 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $88 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $123 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $32 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $26 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $34 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $41 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $29 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $29 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $29 $0 -0%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 14 $35 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $30 1h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $33 17h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $33 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 36¢ $13 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 36¢ $13 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $30 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 68¢ $33 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $22 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $11 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $32 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $31 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $29 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $6 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $25 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $31 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $1 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $5 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $25 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $32 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $16 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $16 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $32 5d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $35 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $34 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 42¢ $19 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 42¢ $19 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $32 8d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $7 8d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $25 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $20 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.87 · official $30.16 (match) · 330 history records