Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:19:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0F 0x0f7a…4b3a crypto 885 markets active 6d ago coverage 84d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 83d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,648 (-19%) realized −$3,648 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%271W / 614L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day29.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$178
14 days−$1,260
30 days−$1,260
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3,910
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-28.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -34.3% -40.6% 28% 26% -42.6%
≤30d 196 -34.4% -40.6% 29% 27% -33.7%
≤90d 876 -20.4% -28.0% 31% 30% -28.0%
all 885 -21.1% -28.6% 31% 29% -28.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.6% 29% -28.3%
10% ← realistic here -35.4% 26% -35.1%
15% -41.7% 23% -41.4%
20% -47.4% 21% -47.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$17 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,648
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses271 / 614
Open positions0
Markets (closed)885 / 885
History coverage84d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day29.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 885 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $12 −$10 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 11 $14 +$39 +287%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$6 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $28 −$5 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 11 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $28 −$19 -70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$13 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$4 -37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 11 $18 +$3 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$18 +175%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$5 +212%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 11 $19 +$2 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $14 +$12 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$2 -22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 11 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $12 −$2 -17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 11 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $24 −$6 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 11 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 09 $35 +$69 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 09 $26 +$2 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +66%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 09 $6 +$1 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $3 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $4 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $3 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $3 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $3 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records