Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:04:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f79…1c85 sports 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$136 (-3%) realized −$135 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate45%19W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day23.6pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$590
other 31% +$296
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +2.6% -7.2% 45% 33% -14.4%
≤30d 42 +2.6% -7.2% 45% 33% -14.4%
≤90d 42 +2.6% -7.2% 45% 33% -14.4%
all 42 +2.6% -7.2% 45% 33% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.2% 33% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -16.1% 31% -22.6%
15% -24.2% 29% -30.1%
20% -31.6% 26% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$40 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$135
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses19 / 23
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage4d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day23.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $456 +$261 +57%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $20 +$17 +86%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $903 −$480 -53%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $99 −$55 -56%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $902 +$86 +10%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $15 +$23 +151%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $5 +$33 +650%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 AND Will United Sta Jun 19 $10 +$13 +125%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$9 -46%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $800 +$15 +2%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $9 +$1 +11%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1 −$1 -79%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 18 $26 −$10 -40%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $302 −$106 -35%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $882 +$79 +9%
Spread: Panama (-1.5) Jun 18 $431 +$17 +4%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -95%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $20 +$40 +194%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $46 −$45 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 $0 -1%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 +$10 +102%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$7 +65%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $91 −$90 -99%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$13 +249%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$5 +26%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$11 -73%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$6 +57%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$6 -56%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $10 −$7 -67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 21m
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 100¢ $707 22m
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 100¢ $38 22m
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 66¢ $41 40m
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 62¢ $405 42m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 43¢ $423 42m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 35¢ $43 43m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 87¢ $8 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 87¢ $80 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 90¢ $903 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $988 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 91¢ $100 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 91¢ $100 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 91¢ $100 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 91¢ $100 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 91¢ $100 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 91¢ $100 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 91¢ $100 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 91¢ $100 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 91¢ $100 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 18¢ $11 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 2h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? SELL No 25¢ $7 3h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY No 34¢ $10 3h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 AND Will United Sta BUY 44¢ $10 10h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 10h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 10h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.00 · official $19.00 (match) · 113 history records