Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:51:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
0F 0x0f79…39dc other 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 395d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$152 (-32%) realized −$153 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate8%1W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 40% +$37
other 27% −$54
politics 18% −$67
world 15% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-46.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -36.8% -42.9% 17% 17% -10.6%
≤30d 6 -36.8% -42.9% 17% 17% -10.6%
≤90d 6 -36.8% -42.9% 17% 17% -10.6%
all 12 -40.6% -46.2% 8% 8% -32.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.2% 8% -32.6%
10% -51.4% 8% -39.1%
15% -56.1% 8% -45.0%
20% -60.4% 8% -50.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$14 · ×3.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

395d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$153
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses1 / 11
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage395d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $48 $49 +$1 (+2%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $50 +$48 +97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $28 −$27 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$2 -8%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Trump say "Peace through strength" this week? Dec 19 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Another Houthi strike on Israel in May? May 22 $70 −$20 -29%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? May 21 $20 −$3 -13%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 19 $100 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with India before July? May 19 $19 −$4 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 21m
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $0 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $98 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $50 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $50 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $28 21h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $19 21h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 21h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 22h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 22h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $10 22h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 22h
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? BUY Yes $12 179d
Another Houthi strike on Israel in May? SELL Yes 14¢ $14 391d
Another Houthi strike on Israel in May? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 392d
Another Houthi strike on Israel in May? SELL Yes 22¢ $36 392d
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? SELL Yes 52¢ $17 392d
Another Houthi strike on Israel in May? BUY Yes 31¢ $50 394d
Will Trump say "Peace through strength" this week? BUY Yes 52¢ $50 394d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 60¢ $100 394d
Will Trump say "Peace through strength" this week? BUY Yes 38¢ $14 394d
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with India before July? SELL No 19¢ $15 394d
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with India before July? BUY No 25¢ $19 394d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 60¢ $100 394d
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 394d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.19 · official $59.20 (match) · 30 history records