Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:56:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f74…f047 crypto 599 markets active 2d ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$356 (-13%) realized −$356 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%140W / 459L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day19.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$168
14 days−$469
30 days−$844
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$150
other 21% −$326
sports 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -82.9% -84.5% 0% 0% -82.4%
≤30d 372 -26.0% -33.1% 17% 16% -53.5%
≤90d 599 -9.6% -18.2% 23% 23% -27.2%
all 599 -9.6% -18.2% 23% 23% -27.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 23% -27.2%
10% -26.0% 22% -34.2%
15% -33.2% 22% -40.6%
20% -39.7% 21% -46.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$4 · ×2.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$356
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses140 / 459
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)599 / 599
History coverage58d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day19.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 599 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 27 $8 −$8 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $5 −$1 -21%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? Jun 26 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 France? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? Jun 26 $19 −$18 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? Jun 25 $15 −$14 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $11 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $21 −$11 -51%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 Uzbekistan? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 Uzbekistan? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 Uzbekistan? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 Uzbekistan? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 3 Uzbekistan? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $4 −$3 -57%
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $21 −$15 -74%
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $24 −$10 -41%
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 24 $5 −$1 -14%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Haiti? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Haiti? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 3 Australia? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 3 Australia? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Haiti? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Australia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Sweden? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 21 $19 −$16 -81%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Sweden? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$2 -17%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Qatar? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Qatar? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Qatar? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Qatar? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 3 Qatar? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? BUY Yes 5¢ $9 2d
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 France? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? BUY Yes 7¢ $19 2d
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 3d
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 3d
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 5d
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 26¢ $9 5d
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 5¢ $9 5d
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 5d
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 5d
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 5¢ $14 5d
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 5d
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 2 DR Congo? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 5d
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 5d
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $17 5d
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 5d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 5d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1661 history records