Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:13:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f6f…d78b crypto 985 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 82d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$560 (-1%) realized −$565 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate84%812W / 158L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day31.2pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$311now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$19
14 days+$15
30 days+$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$463
other 6% +$103
world 5% +$10
sports 5% −$90
finance 3% +$14
politics 1% +$188
weather 0% −$12
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -8.2% -16.9% 83% 5% -10.7%
≤30d 118 -5.5% -14.5% 86% 8% -8.5%
≤90d 970 -2.1% -11.4% 84% 10% -9.9%
all 970 -2.1% -11.4% 84% 10% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 10% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 5% -18.5%
15% -27.6% 3% -26.4%
20% -34.7% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$13 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$311
Realized−$565
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses812 / 158
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions13
Markets (closed)970 / 985
History coverage83d ⚠
Avg bet$65
Trades / day31.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 970 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will GRVT launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 94¢ 93¢ $153 $151 −$2 (-1%)
Will GRVT launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 83¢ 90¢ $83 $90 +$7 (+8%)
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 96¢ 95¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-1%)
GRVT FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 98¢ 97¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Yes 98¢ 97¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 96¢ 95¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 97¢ 84¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 12¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+41%)
Will GRVT launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 18¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 8¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 15 $2 −$1 -61%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 15 $12 −$6 -50%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 15 $10 −$8 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $97 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 11 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $45 $0 +1%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Will Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 10 $43 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 10 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 10 $45 $0 +1%
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 10 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 09 $57 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 09 $27 −$4 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 09 $30 $0 +1%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 09 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 09 $55 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $20 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 09 $89 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 09 $56 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 09 $124 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 09 $15 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 09 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 08 $21 −$15 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 08 $16 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 08 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 08 $11 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 08 $28 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 08 $77 +$1 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $10 +$1 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $243 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 07 $117 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 06 $20 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 06 $25 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 05 $50 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 05 $15 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 05 $117 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 05 $99 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $6 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 34¢ $1 1h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 34¢ $6 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL No 17¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 68¢ $169 34h
Will GRVT launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $93 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $44 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $77 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY 3¢ $2 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $177 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Korea Republic win on 202 BUY 8¢ $5 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 92¢ $4 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 92¢ $42 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $15 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $29 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 61¢ $5 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $5 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 95¢ $53 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 95¢ $47 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $37 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 3d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $36 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $311.41 · official $311.41 (match) · 3500 history records