Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:27:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0F 0x0f6f…cb6b crypto 1523 markets active 3d ago coverage 237d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 237d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$236 (-5%) realized −$236 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate69%1052W / 470L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$11
14 days+$28
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$114
other 5% −$53
sports 0% −$1
politics 0% −$4
tech 0% −$1
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 236 +4.9% -5.1% 72% 70% -5.5%
≤30d 407 +1.0% -8.6% 72% 60% -7.2%
≤90d 1106 -2.2% -11.5% 80% 25% -10.7%
all 1522 -7.1% -16.0% 69% 24% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 24% -12.8%
10% -24.0% 21% -21.1%
15% -31.3% 16% -28.8%
20% -38.1% 11% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

237d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$236
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses1052 / 470
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1522 / 1523
History coverage237d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1522 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records