Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:52:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0F 0x0f65…25be sports 196 markets active 0h ago coverage 890d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$73 (+0%) realized +$77 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate29%50W / 120L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$194per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$19
14 days−$19
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 35% +$166
other 23% −$22
politics 23% −$13
economics 16% −$15
tech 1% −$1
crypto 1% −$26
world 1% −$17
culture 1% $0
weather 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -16.2% -24.2% 30% 30% -33.3%
≤30d 22 -6.0% -15.0% 36% 36% +7.2%
≤90d 22 -6.0% -15.0% 36% 36% +7.2%
all 170 -0.4% -9.9% 29% 22% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 22% -9.3%
10% -18.5% 21% -18.0%
15% -26.4% 18% -25.9%
20% -33.6% 16% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$2 · ×3.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

890d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized+$77
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses50 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions26
Markets (closed)170 / 196
History coverage890d
Avg bet$194
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 170 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? No 19¢ 20¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 69¢ 66¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? No 33¢ 30¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-11%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Yes 37¢ 34¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? No 34¢ 34¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 67¢ 66¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31? No 80¢ 80¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 79¢ 78¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No 70¢ 68¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Yes 12¢ 19¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+55%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs 9z 28¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will annual inflation be 3.6% or less in June? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score No 56¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 85¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? No 84¢ 83¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 76¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? No 73¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? No 74¢ 73¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? No $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 -24%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 16 $1 $0 -2%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen Jun 16 $3 $0 -14%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 16 $4 +$1 +32%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $6 +$1 +22%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 16 $6 −$1 -12%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 18.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +49%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $2 +$2 +91%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +130%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $2 −$1 -61%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +63%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $6 $0 -2%
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by July 31? Jun 13 $3 $0 -2%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Sabres vs. Golden Knights May 19 $18 +$22 +122%
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies May 19 $28 +$19 +70%
Rockets vs. Thunder Mar 18 $16 +$20 +122%
Clippers vs. Kings Mar 18 $38 +$24 +64%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Feb 07 $1,093 −$1 -0%
Senators vs. Flyers Feb 07 $28 +$22 +79%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 06 $960 −$1 -0%
Will Real Sociedad win the 2025–26 La Liga? Feb 05 $1,000 −$1 -0%
Nuggets vs. Knicks Feb 05 $20 +$10 +52%
Senators vs. Hurricanes Feb 05 $38 +$20 +54%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 04 $940 −$1 -0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 03 $960 −$1 -0%
Will Girona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Feb 02 $1,000 −$1 -0%
Islanders vs. Capitals Feb 02 $16 −$16 -100%
Nets vs. Jazz Feb 02 $6 +$9 +150%
Avalanche vs. Red Wings Feb 02 $24 +$18 +75%
Will Valencia win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 31 $1,930 −$2 -0%
Hornets vs. Grizzlies Jan 30 $24 +$21 +89%
Warriors vs. Jazz Jan 30 $40 +$14 +34%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Jan 29 $880 −$10 -1%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 28 $2,855 −$5 -0%
Islanders vs. Flyers Jan 28 $11 +$12 +104%
Pistons vs. Nuggets Jan 27 $14 −$14 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 26 $2,882 −$4 -0%
Celtics vs. Bulls Jan 26 $25 +$24 +96%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 25 $920 −$1 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 24 $1,910 −$3 -0%
Wizards vs. Hornets Jan 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Lakers vs. Mavericks Jan 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Suns vs. Hawks Jan 24 $9 +$13 +144%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 3m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 20m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $2 28m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $2 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $2 1h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 28¢ $1 2h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 2h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $3 2h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 64¢ $3 2h
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 3h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $3 3h
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No $0 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No $0 3h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $3 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No $0 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No $0 4h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 4h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 34¢ $1 4h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? BUY No 84¢ $1 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $1 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No $0 4h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 33¢ $2 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.13 · official $81.13 (match) · 435 history records