Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:27:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0F 0x0f5e…1eb3 crypto 440 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$47 (+2%) realized +$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate82%362W / 78L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day22.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$27
14 days+$42
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$21
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 185 +5.8% -4.3% 84% 71% -6.9%
≤30d 440 +3.1% -6.8% 82% 69% -8.7%
≤90d 440 +3.1% -6.8% 82% 69% -8.7%
all 440 +3.1% -6.8% 82% 69% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.8% 69% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -15.7% 31% -17.4%
15% -23.8% 6% -25.4%
20% -31.3% 1% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses362 / 78
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)440 / 440
History coverage21d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day22.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 440 Trades
no open positions (53 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$3 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$4 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $0 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $6 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 861 history records