Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:37:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f5b…6846 other 225 markets active 1h ago coverage 180d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 180d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$324 (-1%) realized −$310 · open −$14
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate52%106W / 97L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$280per market
Trades / day19.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$1,160now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days−$69
14 days+$52
30 days+$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% −$565
crypto 19% +$1,184
finance 5% +$19
other 4% −$97
sports 4% +$17
politics 3% +$14
tech 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -8.9% -17.6% 60% 30% -18.1%
≤30d 192 -0.3% -9.8% 51% 2% -9.3%
≤90d 201 -0.8% -10.3% 52% 2% -10.2%
all 203 +0.3% -9.3% 52% 2% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 2% -8.6%
10% -18.0% 2% -17.4%
15% -25.9% 2% -25.4%
20% -33.2% 2% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$8 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$1,160
Realized−$310
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses106 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions22
Markets (closed)203 / 225
History coverage180d ⚠
Avg bet$280
Trades / day19.2
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 203 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 94¢ $475 $472 −$2 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $288 $287 −$1 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 90¢ $276 $272 −$4 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $40 $36 −$4 (-9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $28 $26 −$2 (-6%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-6%)
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 95¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 96¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+9%)
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 97¢ 96¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond? No 94¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? No 97¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison? No 96¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $31 +$19 +62%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $71 +$29 +42%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $42 −$13 -31%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $121 −$120 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $42 −$42 -100%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$3 -27%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $35 +$3 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $177 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $102 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $509 +$3 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $2,474 +$115 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $399 +$1 +0%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 08 $18 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 08 $689 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $343 −$1 -0%
Will Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $76 $0 +0%
Will Joe Mazzulla win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? May 27 $76 $0 +0%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $101 $0 +0%
Will Lighter reach $10 before 2027? May 26 $1 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? May 26 $30 $0 +1%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 26 $11 $0 +1%
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison? May 26 $25 $0 +2%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? May 26 $54 $0 +0%
Will Trump and Putin not meet? May 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? May 26 $42 $0 +0%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 26 $13 +$1 +5%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $539 +$1 +0%
Trump out as President by June 30? May 26 $30 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 26 $159 +$1 +1%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by May 31? May 26 $46 +$1 +2%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 26 $17 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026? May 26 $10 $0 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 26 $9 $0 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? May 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? May 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? May 26 $9 $0 -2%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on I May 26 $9 $0 -4%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? May 26 $10 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? May 26 $9 $0 -2%
Will Elina Svitolina win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 26 $38 $0 -0%
Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027? May 26 $10 $0 -3%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $10 $0 +2%
Will Ben Shelton be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? May 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad finish in second place in the first round of the May 26 $28 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? May 26 $10 $0 -3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? May 26 $28 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 26 $40 $0 -0%
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record? May 26 $10 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $22 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $22 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $31 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $23 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $27 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 70¢ $71 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 59¢ $29 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $138 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $44 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $57 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $42 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 83¢ $42 3d
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 3d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $38 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $140 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $102 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $578 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $292 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $477 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $102 8d
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $278 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $439 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,160.39 · official $1,154.71 (match) · 3500 history records