Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:59:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f58…87dc other 144 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$94 (+0%) realized +$93 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate19%27W / 116L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$1,250per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$342now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$13
14 days−$22
30 days−$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$323
politics 32% −$69
sports 15% +$480
culture 5% −$8
world 2% −$3
economics 1% −$2
tech 1% −$3
crypto 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 34 -1.8% -11.1% 9% 3% -9.7%
≤90d 76 -3.5% -12.7% 7% 1% -9.7%
all 143 +1.1% -8.6% 19% 13% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 13% -9.5%
10% -17.3% 12% -18.1%
15% -25.3% 10% -26.1%
20% -32.6% 9% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,618) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$13 · ×4.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$342
Realized+$93
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses27 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)143 / 144
History coverage132d
Avg bet$1,250
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $341 $342 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 24 $344 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 24 $263 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $4,525 −$6 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $386 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $391 −$1 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $349 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $542 −$1 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $543 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $1,618 −$2 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $316 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $1,751 −$3 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $810 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $2,152 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,351 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,246 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $1,153 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,094 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $882 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $2,202 −$3 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $1,196 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $78 +$34 +44%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,311 −$2 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 03 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $4,942 −$5 -0%
Will Solana reach $120 in May? Jun 02 $301 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $624 +$2 +0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 01 $407 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $1,318 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $3,592 −$4 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $481 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $534 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $2,192 −$3 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $3,398 −$4 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $1,821 −$2 -0%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $3,879 −$5 -0%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 23 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $1,255 −$1 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $1,033 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $4,404 −$5 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 10 $1,536 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $1,348 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $1,488 −$1 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 25 $1,426 −$3 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,245 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $1,203 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $3,362 −$3 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $3,371 −$3 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $4,099 −$4 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $1,349 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $343 54m
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $344 1h
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $263 1h
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $263 5h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $369 21h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $370 23h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $385 24h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $386 26h
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $390 27h
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $391 29h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $349 2d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $349 2d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $542 5d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $542 5d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $542 5d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $543 5d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $342 6d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $343 6d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $316 6d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $316 6d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $855 7d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $857 8d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $809 8d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $810 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $864 10d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $866 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $341 12d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,349 13d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,351 14d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,244 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $341.63 · official $341.63 (match) · 493 history records