Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:31:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f58…bc49 crypto 307 markets active 0h ago coverage 569d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$16,694 (+70%) realized +$16,732 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate33%97W / 193L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$169now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$445
7 days−$447
14 days−$447
30 days−$463
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 84% +$16,600
other 7% +$444
crypto 4% +$131
world 4% −$553
tech 1% +$48
sports 1% −$6
culture 0% −$106
weather 0% −$5
economics 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 131 -16.8% -24.7% 42% 42% -36.3%
≤30d 138 -17.0% -24.9% 41% 41% -35.7%
≤90d 144 -6.1% -15.0% 42% 41% -26.3%
all 290 -16.2% -24.2% 33% 30% +53.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 30% +53.4%
10% -31.4% 29% +38.7%
15% -38.1% 27% +25.3%
20% -44.1% 24% +13.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +71% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -26% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$211 vs −$20 · ×10.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.28 per $1 lost it wins $5.28
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

569d coverage
Net worth$169
Realized+$16,732
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses97 / 193
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Open positions17
Markets (closed)290 / 307
History coverage569d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 290 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-4%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+6%)
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms? Yes 11¢ 5¢ $29 $12 −$17 (-58%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $22 $6 −$16 (-73%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Up 51¢ 42¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$10 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$8 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$7 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$4 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$9 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$6 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $9 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $169.49 · official $172.62 · 1447 history records