Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:40:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0F 0x0f53…50a0 crypto 111 markets active 0h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+2%) realized +$16 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate59%65W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$12
14 days+$10
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 +14.2% +3.3% 62% 61% -7.9%
≤30d 90 +14.1% +3.3% 62% 61% -7.5%
≤90d 110 +8.5% -1.8% 59% 57% -8.1%
all 110 +8.5% -1.8% 59% 57% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.8% 57% -8.1%
10% -11.2% 57% -16.9%
15% -19.8% 57% -24.9%
20% -27.7% 0% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$16
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses65 / 45
Open positions1
Markets (closed)110 / 111
History coverage53d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Up 66¢ 62¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 24 $42 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 24 $14 +$5 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 24 $14 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 24 $42 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 24 $42 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 24 $14 +$6 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 24 $7 +$3 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 24 $7 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 24 $28 −$8 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 24 $21 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 24 $3 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 24 $3 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 24 $3 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 24 $3 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 24 $3 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 24 $14 −$4 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 24 $3 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $3 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 24 $3 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 24 $3 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$5 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $14 −$4 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$5 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 22 $3 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 22 $3 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $14 −$4 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $14 −$4 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 22 $3 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $3 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $3 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $3 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 22 $3 +$1 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $14 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $9 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $20 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $28 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $14 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $20 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $14 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $20 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $14 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $40 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $14 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.86 · official $10.77 · 344 history records