Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:28:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f52…5978 crypto 116 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$102 (-25%) realized −$103 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%49W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day28.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$108
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 115 -10.0% -18.6% 43% 43% -34.5%
≤30d 115 -10.0% -18.6% 43% 43% -34.5%
≤90d 115 -10.0% -18.6% 43% 43% -34.5%
all 115 -10.0% -18.6% 43% 43% -34.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.6% 43% -34.5%
10% ← realistic here -26.4% 43% -40.8%
15% -33.5% 40% -46.5%
20% -40.0% 37% -51.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$103
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses49 / 66
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)115 / 116
History coverage6d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day28.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Down 52¢ 80¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$5 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$6 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$8 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +237%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +219%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$3 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.55 · official $1.03 (match) · 218 history records