Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:43:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f4f…1bd9 crypto 208 markets active 1h ago coverage 431d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$40 (+0%) realized +$58 · open −$18
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate38%75W / 122L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$428now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days+$23
14 days+$23
30 days−$224
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$592
politics 22% −$251
other 16% −$162
crypto 10% −$295
finance 2% −$29
sports 1% +$40
culture 0% −$36
tech 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +92.8% +74.4% 52% 52% -8.8%
≤30d 31 +77.1% +60.3% 55% 55% -13.1%
≤90d 151 +27.6% +15.4% 41% 34% -8.3%
all 197 +10.4% -0.1% 38% 32% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.1% 32% -9.9%
10% -9.7% 28% -18.5%
15% -18.4% 24% -26.4%
20% -26.4% 20% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$15 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

431d coverage
Net worth$428
Realized+$58
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses75 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions11
Markets (closed)197 / 208
History coverage431d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 197 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $81 $96 +$15 (+19%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 17¢ 14¢ $87 $70 −$17 (-19%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $66 $64 −$2 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $63 $60 −$2 (-4%)
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $56 $54 −$1 (-3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $37 $33 −$4 (-10%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $37 $33 −$4 (-11%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $18 $17 −$2 (-8%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Yes 14¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 16 $26 $0 -1%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $8 +$2 +26%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $6 +$30 +464%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 16 $13 +$7 +58%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $9 +$10 +112%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $13 +$17 +130%
Adrien Rabiot: 1+ goals Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 +$14 +229%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $13 +$13 +98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$9 -30%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $18 −$2 -11%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$23 +442%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $50 +$9 +18%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $122 −$27 -22%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $5 +$5 +99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $33 +$30 +92%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$90 +873%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5 $0 -7%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $411 −$127 -31%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $2,000 −$36 -2%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 28 $109 +$18 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 22 $22 +$6 +29%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 21 $384 −$13 -3%
Will Lucas Paquetá be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squ May 18 $366 −$352 -96%
Will Andrey Santos be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squ May 18 $59 +$40 +67%
Will Rayan be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list? May 18 $25 +$15 +58%
Will Bento be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list? May 18 $16 +$44 +274%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 18 $5 −$4 -86%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 15 $4 $0 +2%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 15 $3 $0 -9%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 15 $4 $0 -8%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 15 $4 $0 -10%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 14 $7 −$1 -9%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 14 $77 −$48 -62%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 08 $41 −$4 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 08 $1,438 +$27 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 08 $140 −$16 -11%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 06 $10 −$8 -78%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 04 $51 −$19 -36%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April? Apr 29 $241 −$178 -74%
Will Romeu Zema finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 B Apr 29 $34 +$2 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in April? Apr 28 $113 −$14 -13%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 28 $9 −$6 -63%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 28 $76 +$4 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? Apr 28 $18 +$1 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $718 −$13 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes $1 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $1 2h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $1 2h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $1 2h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $1 2h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $1 2h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $1 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals SELL Yes 25¢ $8 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 49¢ $24 3h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals SELL Yes 49¢ $5 3h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals SELL Yes 35¢ $4 3h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 26¢ $2 3h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $1 3h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 3h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $14 3h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 3h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $4 3h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals SELL Yes 50¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $428.42 · official $428.67 (match) · 2306 history records