Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:04:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0F 0x0f47…08b4 crypto 512 markets active 0h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$641 (-4%) realized −$648 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate60%307W / 203L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$178
7 days−$267
14 days−$267
30 days−$267
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$660
other 7% −$266
sports 1% −$27
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -25.0% -32.1% 48% 40% -34.6%
≤30d 25 -25.0% -32.1% 48% 40% -34.6%
≤90d 36 -36.7% -42.7% 42% 31% -47.0%
all 510 -7.4% -16.2% 60% 48% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 48% -14.6%
10% -24.2% 35% -22.7%
15% -31.6% 23% -30.2%
20% -38.3% 15% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$20 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$648
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses307 / 203
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)510 / 512
History coverage131d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 510 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Up 30¢ 28¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Yes 0¢ 14¢ $0 $8 +$8 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 81 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 23 $16 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$16 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 23 $52 −$48 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 23 $126 −$20 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$7 -61%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $118 −$118 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$4 +15%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $226 −$13 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$4 +12%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$4 +15%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $53 −$26 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Mar 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Mar 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Mar 27 $7 −$4 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Mar 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Mar 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Mar 27 $20 −$11 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Mar 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Mar 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 27 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Mar 27 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Mar 27 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Mar 21 $55 −$54 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Mar 21 $86 +$18 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Mar 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Mar 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Mar 21 $20 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Mar 21 $10 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Mar 21 $10 +$18 +179%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 21 $37 −$5 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Mar 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Mar 21 $10 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Mar 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Mar 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Mar 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 13¢ $8 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $16 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $11 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $26 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $4 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $34 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $72 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $100 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $27 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $29 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $4 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $29 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 50m
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 41¢ $118 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.48 · official $19.49 · 1260 history records