Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:29:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f44…f4bd crypto 67 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (109 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$204 (+33%) realized +$208 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate65%26W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day109.0pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$65
other 6% −$4
world 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (109 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -4.5% -13.6% 65% 42% -20.0%
≤30d 40 -4.5% -13.6% 65% 42% -20.0%
≤90d 40 -4.5% -13.6% 65% 42% -20.0%
all 40 -4.5% -13.6% 65% 42% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover109.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 42% -20.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 30% -27.6%
15% -29.4% 28% -34.6%
20% -36.4% 12% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$9 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$208
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses26 / 14
Open positions27
Markets (closed)40 / 67
History coverage1d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day109.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 87¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 24¢ 27¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Canada reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will South Korea reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Sweden reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Australia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Will Scotland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-39%)
Will Iran reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-42%)
Will New Zealand reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-42%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 22 $35 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 22 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 21 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$5 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 21 $16 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$4 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$12 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 21 $81 −$71 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 21 $81 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $9 +$4 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 35m
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 36m
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 37m
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 38m
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 38m
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 38m
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 39m
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 39m
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 42m
Will New Zealand reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 42m
Will Sweden reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 43m
Will Canada reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 43m
Will Iran reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 43m
Will South Korea reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 45m
Will Scotland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 46m
Will Australia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 46m
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 46m
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 46m
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 48m
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 50m
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 50m
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 50m
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 50m
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 50m
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 53m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.54 · official $41.54 (match) · 144 history records