Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:40:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
0F 0x0f3e…d4cc other 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 593d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$19 (+0%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate33%17W / 34L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 71% −$8
other 17% −$5
sports 5% +$29
crypto 4% +$1
economics 2% $0
world 1% +$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +25.3% +13.4% 33% 33% -3.4%
≤30d 14 -1.8% -11.1% 21% 7% -9.3%
≤90d 39 +7.7% -2.5% 36% 23% -7.3%
all 51 +5.4% -4.7% 33% 18% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 18% -9.1%
10% -13.8% 18% -17.8%
15% -22.1% 16% -25.8%
20% -29.8% 16% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

593d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses17 / 34
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)51 / 53
History coverage593d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Will Solana reach $130 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $8 +$6 +76%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $66 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $14 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $8 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $15 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $79 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 26 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 22 $11 $0 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 21 $15 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 19 $17 $0 -0%
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox May 18 $5 +$5 +97%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 18 $12 +$7 +65%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $59 $0 -0%
Avalanche vs. Wild May 12 $8 +$6 +76%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $57 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $57 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $56 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $58 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $56 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $53 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $58 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $55 $0 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $6 +$5 +72%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $7 +$5 +79%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $9 +$8 +83%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bucks vs. Nets Apr 08 $6 +$8 +124%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder Apr 06 $11 +$3 +31%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? Apr 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Apr 02 $29 $0 +2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 30 $19 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Mar 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in February? Mar 05 $36 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 13 $35 +$1 +3%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 10 $8 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 19 $21 $0 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 14 $1 $0 -25%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 15 $16 $0 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $41 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 11 $200 −$1 -1%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Nov 03 $505 −$2 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 03 $1,420 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $130 in June? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $42 41h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $8 3d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $14 4d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 4d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $14 5d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $8 11d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $8 11d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $15 12d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $15 12d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 21d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 21d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $12 22d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 22d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $18 22d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $13 23d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 23d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $11 27d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $11 27d
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $15 28d
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $15 28d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Cavaliers 32¢ $5 28d
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $30 29d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $12 29d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 29d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $16 30d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $17 30d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $67 31d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $67 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.17 · official $67.17 (match) · 240 history records