Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:14:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0F 0x0f3c…d55c sports 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$178 (-21%) realized −$156 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%23W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$182
other 18% +$2
politics 18% −$16
crypto 11% −$5
economics 2% −$11
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +51.9% +37.5% 67% 67% -50.2%
≤90d 22 -5.7% -14.6% 41% 41% -40.3%
all 54 +22.1% +10.5% 43% 43% -33.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.5% 43% -33.7%
10% -0.1% 39% -40.0%
15% -9.8% 35% -45.8%
20% -18.6% 31% -51.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +57% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$12 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized−$156
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses23 / 31
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)54 / 57
History coverage149d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $77 $84 +$7 (+9%)
Will Donald Trump Jr. be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee? Yes 10¢ 3¢ $43 $14 −$29 (-67%)
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $11 +$8 +78%
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $4 +$7 +178%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $40 −$39 -98%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty May 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 14 $3 −$1 -25%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 14 $1 $0 +32%
Valorant: Gentle Mates GC vs Twisted Minds Orchid (BO3) - VCT Game Cha May 13 $1 $0 +21%
Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 10 $72 −$71 -98%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Dut May 10 $50 −$49 -99%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 10 $94 −$5 -5%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 10 $51 −$3 -6%
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Team Liquid (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha May 01 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $7 +$10 +146%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 28 $15 +$2 +14%
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha Apr 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha Apr 10 $11 +$7 +59%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Mar 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Paris Gentle Mates win DreamHack Major 2? Mar 28 $9 −$8 -92%
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha Mar 28 $1 $0 -5%
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car Mar 28 $3 $0 -4%
Call of Duty: Carolina Royal Ravens vs Paris Gentle Mates (BO5) - Call Mar 27 $39 +$18 +46%
Will France win on 2026-03-26? Mar 27 $18 +$25 +138%
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 23 $2 $0 -18%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 23 $3 −$2 -76%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Mar 23 $6 −$5 -88%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 23 $3 −$1 -44%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 23 $4 $0 -6%
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 23 $4 +$5 +116%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Los Angeles Thieves (BO5) - Call o Mar 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Mar 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 18 $2 −$1 -37%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 18 $1 $0 -38%
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs BBL Esports (BO5) - VCT EMEA Kickoff Playoff Mar 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of D Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gentle Mates win Masters Santiago 2026? Mar 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT Masters Santia Mar 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs OpTic Texas (BO5) - Call of Duty L Mar 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $1 +$2 +203%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $2 +$10 +507%
Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election? Mar 16 $1 $0 -33%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Masters Santiago Mar 16 $9 +$10 +108%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty Mar 15 $11 +$3 +30%
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Paris Gentle Mates (BO5) - Call of Du Mar 09 $1 +$6 +567%
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs All Gamers (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Play Mar 08 $4 +$2 +52%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $14 +$25 +179%
Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Mar 07 $3 +$9 +314%
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Gro Mar 03 $11 +$12 +117%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Paris Gentle Mates (BO5) - Call of Duty L Mar 01 $14 −$13 -89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump Jr. be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee BUY Yes 10¢ $45 2h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 2h
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 99¢ $19 23d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 55¢ $11 23d
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer SELL Yes 99¢ $11 23d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $40 24d
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer BUY Yes 35¢ $4 24d
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty BUY Paris Gentle Mates 77¢ $2 39d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 1¢ $2 40d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 1¢ $2 40d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 40d
Valorant: Gentle Mates GC vs Twisted Minds Orchid (BO3) - VCT Game Cha SELL Gentle Mates GC 100¢ $1 40d
Valorant: Gentle Mates GC vs Twisted Minds Orchid (BO3) - VCT Game Cha BUY Gentle Mates GC 82¢ $1 41d
Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs BUY Gentle Mates 25¢ $9 43d
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Dut BUY Paris Gentle Mates 52¢ $40 43d
Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs BUY Gentle Mates 53¢ $50 43d
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Dut BUY Paris Gentle Mates 50¢ $10 44d
Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs BUY Gentle Mates 55¢ $12 44d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $90 44d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $94 44d
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? SELL Yes 41¢ $48 44d
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? BUY Yes 42¢ $8 44d
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? BUY Yes 42¢ $8 44d
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? BUY Yes 42¢ $8 44d
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? BUY Yes 43¢ $9 44d
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? BUY Yes 43¢ $9 44d
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? BUY Yes 43¢ $9 44d
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Team Liquid (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha BUY Gentle Mates 44¢ $16 53d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 40¢ $7 55d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 3¢ $7 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.31 · official $102.31 (match) · 319 history records