Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:06:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0F 0x0f3b…be48 other 103 markets active 1h ago coverage 247d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4,367 (-16%) realized −$4,364 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate46%46W / 54L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$273per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$173now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$25
14 days−$25
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$4,114
sports 18% −$599
world 3% −$732
crypto 1% +$5
tech 0% −$10
finance 0% +$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 2 -39.2% -45.0% 50% 50% -51.1%
all 100 -6.7% -15.6% 46% 39% -27.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 39% -27.0%
10% -23.6% 31% -34.0%
15% -31.0% 22% -40.4%
20% -37.8% 15% -46.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% too few recent
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$150 vs −$227 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

247d coverage
Net worth$173
Realized−$4,364
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses46 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)100 / 103
History coverage247d
Avg bet$273
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $79 $78 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $72 $72 +$0 (+0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Erling Haaland be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? Apr 13 $20 +$4 +22%
Will Sparta Rotterdam vs. NEC end in a draw? Feb 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 16? Feb 17 $8 +$2 +25%
Will Meta (META) finish week of February 9 above $690? Feb 14 $42 +$12 +30%
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of February 9 above $210? Feb 14 $74 −$14 -18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 13? Feb 13 $62 +$8 +14%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on February 13? Feb 13 $65 +$5 +8%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $210 on February 10? Feb 11 $16 +$34 +212%
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 Feb 10 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Meta (META) close above $650 on February 9? Feb 09 $36 +$14 +39%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 9? Feb 09 $50 +$10 +19%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $275 on February 9? Feb 09 $23 +$22 +97%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $175 on February 9? Feb 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 9 above $70? Feb 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of February 2 above $5.50? Feb 07 $11 +$3 +27%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of February 2 above $350? Feb 06 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Amazon (AMZN) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 05 $6 +$94 +1470%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Feb 04 $10 −$2 -26%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev Feb 04 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Feb 03 $4 +$2 +49%
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of February 2 above $245? Feb 03 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Feb 03 $31 +$9 +28%
Will Alphabet (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on February 2? Feb 03 $76 +$24 +32%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-31? Jan 31 $68 −$68 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Ben Shelton vs Jannik Sinner Jan 27 $16 −$16 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Ben Shelton vs Casper Ruud Jan 26 $30 +$20 +64%
Australian Open Men's: Luciano Darderi vs Jannik Sinner Jan 26 $22 −$22 -100%
Will SBV Excelsior win on 2025-12-14? Jan 21 $336 +$44 +13%
Jazz vs. Spurs Jan 20 $321 +$33 +10%
Clippers vs. Wizards Jan 19 $33 −$33 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Arthur Fery vs Flavio Cobolli Jan 18 $507 +$734 +145%
Suns vs. Knicks Jan 18 $216 −$216 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Tomas Etcheverry Jan 18 $46 −$46 -100%
Jazz vs. Mavericks Jan 17 $122 −$122 -100%
Pelicans vs. Pacers Jan 17 $127 −$94 -74%
Clippers vs. Raptors Jan 17 $63 −$63 -100%
Bulls vs. Nets Jan 17 $405 −$405 -100%
Rockets vs. Nuggets Jan 09 $32 +$2 +5%
Celtics vs. Raptors Dec 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Will PSV win on 2025-12-13? Dec 13 $138 −$83 -60%
Will FC Groningen win on 2025-12-13? Dec 13 $337 −$337 -100%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 13 $88 +$12 +14%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2025-12-13? Dec 13 $340 −$278 -82%
Will Torino FC win on 2025-12-13? Dec 13 $682 −$682 -100%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-12-12? Dec 13 $666 +$482 +72%
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2025-12-12? Dec 12 $1,129 −$1,129 -100%
Will PAOK win on 2025-12-11? Dec 12 $385 +$355 +92%
Will Lille OSC win on 2025-12-11? Dec 12 $396 +$593 +150%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $74 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $81 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $25 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $26 2d
Will Sparta Rotterdam vs. NEC end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $7 120d
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of February 9 above $210? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 123d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 16? BUY No 80¢ $8 124d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on February 13? BUY No 93¢ $65 125d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 13? BUY No 88¢ $62 125d
Will Meta (META) finish week of February 9 above $690? BUY No 77¢ $42 126d
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of February 9 above $210? BUY Yes 49¢ $40 127d
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 BUY No 44¢ $66 127d
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of February 9 above $210? BUY No 56¢ $34 127d
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $210 on February 10? BUY No 32¢ $16 127d
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $275 on February 9? SELL No 40¢ $45 128d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $175 on February 9? BUY No 4¢ $0 128d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $175 on February 9? BUY No 4¢ $0 128d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $175 on February 9? BUY No 4¢ $0 128d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $175 on February 9? BUY No 4¢ $0 128d
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $275 on February 9? BUY No 20¢ $2 128d
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $275 on February 9? BUY No 20¢ $0 129d
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $275 on February 9? BUY No 20¢ $2 129d
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 9 above $70? BUY No 6¢ $6 129d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $175 on February 9? BUY No 4¢ $1 129d
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $275 on February 9? BUY No 20¢ $0 129d
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $275 on February 9? BUY No 20¢ $5 129d
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $275 on February 9? BUY No 20¢ $10 129d
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 9 above $70? BUY No 6¢ $1 129d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 9? BUY No 84¢ $50 130d
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $275 on February 9? BUY No 23¢ $3 130d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $172.53 · official $172.57 (match) · 425 history records