Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:55:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f3a…2929 crypto 99 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (123 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$46 (-4%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate58%54W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day123.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$52
sports 10% −$28
other 2% +$2
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (123 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 -7.7% -16.5% 58% 28% -15.6%
≤30d 93 -7.7% -16.5% 58% 28% -15.6%
≤90d 93 -7.7% -16.5% 58% 28% -15.6%
all 93 -7.7% -16.5% 58% 28% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover123.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.5% 28% -15.6%
10% ← realistic here -24.5% 13% -23.7%
15% -31.8% 8% -31.0%
20% -38.5% 5% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses54 / 39
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions6
Markets (closed)93 / 99
History coverage2d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day123.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland Ireland 5¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 16 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $36 −$33 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$5 +234%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $35 −$27 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $26 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $32 −$23 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $50 +$1 +3%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +324%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$13 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$5 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $57 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $27 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $28 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $27 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $46 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $28 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $27 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 13¢ $1 49m
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 86¢ $4 49m
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $4 50m
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 14¢ $1 50m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY Ireland 5¢ $1 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $7 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $28 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 4h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 4h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $29 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.71 · official $12.71 (match) · 291 history records