Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T02:35:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f39…7a21 crypto 806 markets active 9d ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,470 (-10%) realized −$1,470 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate24%194W / 603L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day18.2pace
Fees−$82est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$247
30 days−$750
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$1,920
sports 15% −$545
other 11% −$265
culture 1% −$111
politics 0% −$26
world 0% −$23
economics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 269 +25.6% +13.6% 30% 29% -28.6%
≤90d 546 -7.4% -16.2% 23% 22% -33.0%
all 797 -12.5% -20.8% 24% 23% -32.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 23% -32.5%
10% -28.4% 22% -39.0%
15% -35.3% 20% -44.9%
20% -41.7% 19% -50.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$12 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,470
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses194 / 603
Est. fees paid−$82
Open positions0
Markets (closed)797 / 806
History coverage121d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day18.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 797 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $81 −$40 -49%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $136 −$16 -12%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $73 −$67 -91%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $26 −$2 -8%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $19 −$1 -8%
ITF Dinard: Carla Grignac vs Margaux Maquet Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $27 −$27 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $39 −$35 -90%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $45 +$93 +205%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -96%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $8 −$1 -10%
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA L Jun 15 $33 −$32 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Yuliana Lizarazo Jun 15 $33 −$32 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -94%
Figueira Da Foz: Carolyn Ansari vs Barbora Palicova Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$9 -95%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$10 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 12 $34 −$10 -30%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $17 −$3 -20%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 11 $24 −$23 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $15 −$14 -95%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $15 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 11 $14 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $19 −$7 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $24 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 11 $29 −$27 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 11 $22 +$8 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 11 $20 −$15 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $19 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 11 $32 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$6 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 11 $27 −$26 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $30 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 11 $45 +$34 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 11 $32 −$30 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 9d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $19 9d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $19 9d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $19 9d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $19 9d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 9d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 9d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 9d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $11 9d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $19 9d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $19 9d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $19 9d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $19 9d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $24 9d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $24 9d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $17 9d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 4¢ $17 9d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $26 9d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 9d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 9d
ITF Dinard: Carla Grignac vs Margaux Maquet BUY Carla Grignac 7¢ $1 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 3¢ $10 9d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 10d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 10d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 12d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 12d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $25 12d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 12d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 13d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2298 history records