Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:58:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f37…ea49 sports 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$18 (+3%) realized +$30 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate50%14W / 14L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day57.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$6
crypto 13% +$10
other 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -11.6% -20.1% 50% 39% -6.6%
≤30d 28 -11.6% -20.1% 50% 39% -6.6%
≤90d 28 -11.6% -20.1% 50% 39% -6.6%
all 28 -11.6% -20.1% 50% 39% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.1% 39% -6.6%
10% ← realistic here -27.7% 29% -15.5%
15% -34.7% 14% -23.7%
20% -41.1% 14% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized+$30
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses14 / 14
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions6
Markets (closed)28 / 34
History coverage1d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day57.4
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BetBoom Team 77¢ 66¢ $55 $48 −$7 (-13%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BetBoom Team 62¢ 44¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-29%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 64¢ 64¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 31¢ 26¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $15 +$3 +21%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$4 -36%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 +$2 +20%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$1 +26%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $10 −$4 -37%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $20 +$2 +11%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$3 +54%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $20 +$5 +23%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +32%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$2 -42%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$2 -41%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $50 +$5 +10%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $5 −$2 -36%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$4 -86%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$4 -78%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $105 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $90 +$7 +7%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 −$2 -34%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $25 +$24 +94%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 +$7 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$13 +25%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 82¢ $50 6m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 50¢ $5 16m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 71¢ $10 25m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 99¢ $18 38m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 81¢ $15 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 33¢ $6 2h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 28¢ $4 3h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 31¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 63¢ $8 3h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 38¢ $6 3h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 29¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $5 4h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La SELL Top Esports Challenger 34¢ $6 6h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Top Esports Challenger 46¢ $5 6h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $22 8h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $8 8h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 64¢ $5 8h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Top Esports Challenger 60¢ $5 8h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $25 9h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 81¢ $20 10h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY KT Rolster Challengers 90¢ $20 10h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 11h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 34¢ $3 13h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 13h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 13h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 14h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $5 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.59 · official $77.51 (match) · 77 history records