Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:36:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f37…0583 sports 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized −$475 · open +$477
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -57% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -67% what you keep after slip
Net edge-67%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$777per market
Trades / day57.0pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$3,218now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$68
other 2% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-60.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -56.8% -60.9% 17% 17% -59.2%
≤30d 6 -56.8% -60.9% 17% 17% -59.2%
≤90d 6 -56.8% -60.9% 17% 17% -59.2%
all 6 -56.8% -60.9% 17% 17% -59.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -60.9% 17% -59.2%
10% ← realistic here -64.7% 17% -63.1%
15% -68.1% 0% -66.6%
20% -71.2% 0% -69.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -55% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -57% · $-wt -55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$101 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$3,218
Realized−$475
Unrealized+$477
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$777
Trades / day57.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic Novak Djokovic 85¢ 100¢ $2,741 $3,218 +$477 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $96 −$45 -47%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 29 $224 −$162 -72%
Wimbledon WTA: Katerina Siniakova vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 29 $170 −$126 -74%
Wimbledon ATP: Michael Zheng vs Cameron Norrie Jun 29 $55 −$45 -82%
Wimbledon WTA: Bianca Andreescu vs Shuai Zhang Jun 29 $153 +$52 +34%
Wimbledon WTA: Xinyu Wang vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Jun 29 $766 −$129 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 88¢ $799 20m
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 78¢ $165 40m
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 79¢ $227 40m
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic SELL Novak Djokovic 91¢ $183 54m
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic SELL Novak Djokovic 91¢ $114 54m
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic SELL Novak Djokovic 91¢ $222 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic SELL Novak Djokovic 91¢ $2 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic SELL Novak Djokovic 91¢ $166 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 91¢ $457 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic SELL Novak Djokovic 83¢ $324 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic SELL Novak Djokovic 83¢ $18 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic SELL Novak Djokovic 83¢ $20 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic SELL Novak Djokovic 83¢ $42 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic SELL Novak Djokovic 83¢ $23 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic SELL Novak Djokovic 83¢ $42 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic SELL Novak Djokovic 83¢ $21 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic SELL Novak Djokovic 83¢ $42 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic SELL Novak Djokovic 83¢ $42 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 76¢ $201 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 77¢ $231 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 79¢ $158 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 80¢ $230 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 80¢ $10 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 79¢ $475 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 93¢ $492 2h
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 92¢ $526 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 25¢ $51 2h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil 8¢ $62 3h
Wimbledon WTA: Katerina Siniakova vs Qinwen Zheng SELL Qinwen Zheng 11¢ $41 3h
Wimbledon WTA: Katerina Siniakova vs Qinwen Zheng SELL Qinwen Zheng 11¢ $3 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,217.72 · official $3,217.72 (match) · 57 history records