Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:38:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f34…e312 sports 172 markets active 2h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%14W / 158L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 29% −$5
other 22% −$3
politics 19% −$2
economics 9% $0
crypto 9% −$2
world 7% −$1
culture 4% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -2.3% -11.6% 0% 0% -11.6%
≤30d 3 -1.4% -10.8% 0% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 4 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.6%
all 172 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses14 / 158
Open positions0
Markets (closed)172 / 172
History coverage163d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 172 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $34 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $39 −$1 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $35 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $36 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 04 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 04 $32 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 03 $211 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Mar 03 $128 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 03 $310 −$1 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 03 $192 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 02 $2 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 02 $110 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 02 $78 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 02 $29 $0 -0%
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 02 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 02 $139 $0 -0%
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 02 $33 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Mar 02 $35 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 02 $132 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 01 $185 −$1 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 01 $184 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 01 $173 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Feb 28 $78 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 28 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Feb 28 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 28 $88 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 27 $74 +$1 +1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 27 $86 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 27 $104 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Feb 27 $34 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)? Feb 25 $33 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 25 $87 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 25 $33 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Feb 25 $92 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 25 $106 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 25 $82 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 25 $161 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 7, 2026 (ET)? Feb 23 $51 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 23 $127 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Feb 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 23 $36 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 23 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 23 $91 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 23 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 23 $41 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 23 $118 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 23 $144 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 23 $41 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 23 $201 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 23 $45 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $34 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $34 6h
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $38 13d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $39 13d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $35 26d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $35 26d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $36 39d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 96¢ $36 39d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee SELL Yes 97¢ $32 112d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 98¢ $32 112d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 94¢ $32 112d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 95¢ $32 112d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 97¢ $40 112d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 97¢ $40 112d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $41 112d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $41 112d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $30 112d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $30 113d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $37 113d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 90¢ $2 114d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 90¢ $2 114d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $38 114d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $30 114d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $30 114d
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $31 114d
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 98¢ $31 114d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $29 114d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $29 114d
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 96¢ $10 114d
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 96¢ $10 114d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 684 history records