Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:09:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0F
0x0f33…2ae5
world · 116 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
+$11 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$17 · open −$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$42
Realized+$17
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses61 / 43
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions12
Markets (closed)104 / 116
History coverage63d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 12 History 104 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$10
14 days+$44
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 84¢ 87¢ $19 $19 +$1 (+3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 66¢ 56¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 81¢ 56¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-31%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? No 55¢ 35¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-36%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? No 49¢ 54¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? No 54¢ 51¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 48¢ 50¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? No 42¢ 24¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-43%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? No 58¢ 32¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-44%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 65¢ 31¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-52%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? No 53¢ 20¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-61%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 64¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians Mumbai Indians 34¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Chennai Super Kings 28¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants Lucknow Super Giants 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Pakistan win? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) Khamzat Chimaev 57¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants Lucknow Super Giants 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
T20 World Cup, East Asia-Pacific Qualifier, Regional Final: Papua New Guinea vs Samoa Samoa 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
ODI Series England vs. New Zealand, Women: England vs New Zealand England 58¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals Rajasthan Royals 31¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 12 $2 +$2 +79%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +24%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 12 $4 $0 +6%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 12 $14 +$1 +10%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +62%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +65%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $6 +$2 +35%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $5 $0 -9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 09 $2 $0 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 09 $5 $0 -8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 09 $3 $0 -5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 09 $6 −$2 -34%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 09 $4 +$1 +13%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $6 +$1 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $5 $0 +5%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $10 +$6 +57%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $49 +$12 +24%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $18 +$16 +90%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $7 −$4 -51%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 23 $6 −$3 -41%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $10 +$2 +19%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $1 −$1 -51%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $2 $0 +12%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 23 $3 +$1 +43%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 23 $2 $0 +20%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $1 $0 +5%
Will "Maid of Honor" - Drake debut week album sales be between 100k an May 21 $1 −$1 -58%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k? May 21 $1 $0 -41%
Will "Habibti" - Drake debut week album sales be between 100k and 120k May 21 $1 $0 -11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 20 $1 $0 -0%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Switzerland vs Croatia May 19 $4 +$1 +13%
Will Pakistan win? May 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $4 −$4 -100%
T20 World Cup, East Asia-Pacific Qualifier, Regional Final: Japan vs P May 18 $2 +$3 +134%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $3 +$2 +90%
ODI Series England vs. New Zealand, Women: England vs New Zealand May 16 $3 −$3 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 16 $1 $0 +16%
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? May 15 $6 $0 -8%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings May 15 $2 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $3 −$1 -47%
ICC Cricket World Cup League Two: Scotland vs USA May 14 $13 $0 +4%
T20 World Cup, East Asia-Pacific Qualifier, Regional Final: Papua New May 13 $1 −$1 -98%
T20 Series Pakistan vs Zimbabwe, Women: Pakistan vs Zimbabwe May 12 $1 $0 +4%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 12 $5 +$2 +34%
ICC Cricket World Cup League Two: Nepal vs Scotland May 12 $3 $0 -8%
Will Bangladesh win? May 12 $13 $0 +3%
T20 World Cup, East Asia-Pacific Qualifier, Regional Final: Japan vs I May 12 $1 $0 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 50% +$15
sports 25% +$7
other 12% −$3
finance 4% −$2
politics 4% −$14
crypto 2% +$6
culture 1% −$1
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? SELL No 93¢ $4 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $19 4h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $1 4h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? SELL No 99¢ $4 4h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL No 97¢ $5 4h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 49¢ $2 8h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 92¢ $2 8h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $2 8h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? SELL No 96¢ $2 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $1 13h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 41¢ $1 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY No 54¢ $2 13h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $4 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $1 22h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $1 23h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY No 93¢ $4 32h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $4 32h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? BUY No 74¢ $5 46h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? BUY No 61¢ $4 46h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? BUY No 52¢ $1 46h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 46¢ $1 46h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? BUY No 52¢ $1 46h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? BUY No 58¢ $1 46h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? BUY No 64¢ $1 46h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? BUY No 75¢ $1 46h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $5 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY No 88¢ $5 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $3 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 42¢ $3 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +23.0% +11.3% 75% 50% +2.7%
≤30d 44 +0.8% -8.8% 57% 43% +4.0%
≤90d 104 -2.0% -11.4% 59% 38% -5.0%
all 104 -2.0% -11.4% 59% 38% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 38% -5.0%
10% -19.8% 30% -14.0%
15% -27.6% 20% -22.4%
20% -34.7% 16% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.61 · official $41.61 (match) · 339 history records