trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 12 | $17 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 12 | $36 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? | Jun 11 | $25 | +$1 | +6% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Jun 10 | $82 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 09 | $108 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 09 | $24 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | Jun 08 | $47 | $0 | -1% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 07 | $26 | $0 | -0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 05 | $48 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 17 | $1 | $0 | -6% |
| Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? | Dec 11 | $2 | $0 | +5% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 19 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 19 | $3 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.0% and 46.4% on March 28? | Mar 27 | $22 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? | Mar 24 | $20 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 14 | $2 | $0 | -7% |
| Will Trump issue an executive order on March 12? | Mar 14 | $22 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Lille win the UEFA Champions League? | Mar 13 | $21 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84000 and $86000 on Mar 7? | Mar 11 | $20 | +$1 | +6% |
| Will Montoya stay with his girlfriend? | Mar 07 | $13 | +$7 | +59% |
| Will Trump's joint address to Congress be less than 50 min? | Mar 05 | $13 | $0 | -2% |
| Rutgers vs. Purdue | Mar 03 | $16 | −$3 | -20% |
| North Carolina vs. Virginia Tech | Mar 03 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Aston Villa win on 2025-03-04? | Mar 03 | $17 | $0 | -2% |
| Flames vs. Flyers | Mar 03 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 9 | +0.6% | -9.0% | 22% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤30d | 9 | +0.6% | -9.0% | 22% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤90d | 9 | +0.6% | -9.0% | 22% | 0% | -9.4% |
| all | 25 | +1.8% | -7.9% | 40% | 4% | -8.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -7.9% | 4% | -8.7% |
| 10% | -16.7% | 4% | -17.4% |
| 15% | -24.8% | 4% | -25.4% |
| 20% | -32.2% | 4% | -32.7% |