trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? | Jun 12 | $4 | +$1 | +16% |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? | Jun 12 | $11 | +$1 | +11% |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju | Jun 12 | $4 | +$1 | +16% |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? | Jun 11 | $9 | −$4 | -47% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 11? | Jun 11 | $5 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 11? | Jun 11 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 11? | Jun 11 | $12 | +$4 | +33% |
| Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 11? | Jun 11 | $24 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? | Jun 11 | $5 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju | Jun 11 | $78 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 71°F or below on June | Jun 11 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 10? | Jun 11 | $4 | +$1 | +19% |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju | Jun 11 | $8 | +$2 | +24% |
| Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 10? | Jun 11 | $50 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju | Jun 11 | $22 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? | Jun 10 | $13 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? | Jun 09 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? | Jun 01 | $53 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? | May 15 | $5 | $0 | +1% |
| Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A | May 13 | $10 | +$1 | +8% |
| Thunder vs. Lakers | May 12 | $1,640 | −$42 | -3% |
| Pistons vs. Cavaliers | May 12 | $1,234 | −$15 | -1% |
| Spurs vs. Timberwolves | May 11 | $839 | −$15 | -2% |
| Knicks vs. 76ers | May 10 | $669 | −$5 | -1% |
| Thunder vs. Lakers | May 10 | $291 | −$6 | -2% |
| Pistons vs. Cavaliers | May 09 | $690 | +$5 | +1% |
| Knicks vs. 76ers | May 09 | $815 | −$367 | -45% |
| Spurs vs. Timberwolves | May 09 | $170 | −$34 | -20% |
| Lakers vs. Thunder | May 08 | $939 | −$19 | -2% |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | May 08 | $1,841 | +$134 | +7% |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | May 07 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Timberwolves vs. Spurs | May 07 | $185 | −$1 | -1% |
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? | May 04 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 17 | +2.0% | -7.7% | 94% | 35% | -7.0% |
| ≤30d | 19 | +1.9% | -7.8% | 95% | 32% | -7.3% |
| ≤90d | 33 | -0.7% | -10.2% | 67% | 18% | -12.9% |
| all | 33 | -0.7% | -10.2% | 67% | 18% | -12.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -10.2% | 18% | -12.9% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -18.8% | 6% | -21.2% |
| 15% | -26.6% | 0% | -28.8% |
| 20% | -33.8% | 0% | -35.8% |