Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:25:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0F 0x0f2e…cf6b other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$27 (+27%) realized +$38 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +31% what you keep after slip
Net edge+31%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%9W / 5L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$29
14 days+$26
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% +$6
sports 6% +$10
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+30.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +100.8% +81.7% 100% 100% +79.5%
≤30d 14 +44.5% +30.7% 64% 64% +29.7%
≤90d 14 +44.5% +30.7% 64% 64% +29.7%
all 14 +44.5% +30.7% 64% 64% +29.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +30.7% 64% +29.7%
10% +18.2% 64% +17.3%
15% +6.8% 57% +6.0%
20% -3.7% 43% -4.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +45% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +87% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.42 per $1 lost it wins $2.42
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$38
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses9 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage12d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 55¢ 40¢ $40 $29 −$11 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $7 +$4 +50%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$14 +140%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $8 +$5 +62%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4 +$6 +152%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 +$2 +57%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 +$5 +249%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 $0 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +47%
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$7 +344%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $41 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $7 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 61¢ $8 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $4 7d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 8d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 8d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 9d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $2 9d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 9d
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $3 10d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $7 10d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 10d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 10d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 11d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $6 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.04 · official $30.56 · 24 history records