Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:53:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f2b…665a world 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$4,590 (+4%) realized −$350 · open +$4,940
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate74%14W / 5L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,798per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$79,389now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$90
7 days+$216
14 days+$95
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$641
other 26% +$1,054
politics 19% +$1,816
tech 11% +$1,314
finance 2% +$150
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +7.1% -3.1% 80% 40% -7.1%
≤30d 19 +0.8% -8.8% 74% 32% -9.4%
≤90d 19 +0.8% -8.8% 74% 32% -9.4%
all 19 +0.8% -8.8% 74% 32% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 32% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 21% -18.1%
15% -25.5% 0% -26.0%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$1,800) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$249 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$79,389
Realized−$350
Unrealized+$4,940
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses14 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Open positions21
Markets (closed)19 / 40
History coverage22d
Avg bet$2,798
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 85¢ 99¢ $11,413 $13,384 +$1,971 (+17%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 91¢ 98¢ $9,086 $9,840 +$754 (+8%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 86¢ 95¢ $8,620 $9,525 +$905 (+10%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 89¢ 97¢ $4,447 $4,862 +$415 (+9%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 93¢ $4,621 $4,645 +$24 (+1%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 85¢ 88¢ $4,250 $4,425 +$175 (+4%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 82¢ 86¢ $4,100 $4,325 +$225 (+5%)
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Yes 72¢ 84¢ $3,593 $4,175 +$582 (+16%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? No 71¢ 82¢ $3,565 $4,125 +$560 (+16%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $3,998 $4,025 +$27 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 71¢ 72¢ $3,550 $3,575 +$25 (+1%)
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? No 69¢ 70¢ $3,465 $3,500 +$35 (+1%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 69¢ $4,169 $3,474 −$695 (-17%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $892 $1,150 +$258 (+29%)
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 35¢ 31¢ $1,040 $918 −$122 (-12%)
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 90¢ $882 $900 +$18 (+2%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 70¢ 71¢ $700 $710 +$10 (+1%)
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 76¢ 64¢ $811 $677 −$134 (-17%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 75¢ 64¢ $750 $635 −$115 (-15%)
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? No 89¢ 98¢ $447 $493 +$46 (+10%)
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 10¢ 5¢ $50 $25 −$25 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? Jun 24 $5,258 −$29 -1%
Will Dragoș Pîslaru be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 23 $31 +$4 +12%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $1,800 +$115 +6%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $848 +$122 +14%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $151 +$5 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 15 $750 +$212 +28%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 14 $4,100 +$50 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $645 +$5 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $478 +$2 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $1,627 +$110 +7%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $900 +$40 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $2,200 −$540 -24%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $640 −$10 -2%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $150 −$150 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $2,630 −$517 -20%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $400 +$100 +25%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $375 +$125 +33%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $1,610 +$390 +24%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $900 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 70¢ $350 2h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 75¢ $285 2h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 75¢ $90 2h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 77¢ $104 3h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 77¢ $23 3h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 77¢ $23 3h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 77¢ $234 3h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 78¢ $255 4h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 78¢ $39 4h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 78¢ $18 4h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 78¢ $78 4h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 93¢ $433 4h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 54¢ $36 8h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 75¢ $355 10h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 80¢ $8 10h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 80¢ $365 10h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 80¢ $51 10h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $578 12h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $674 16h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $810 16h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $425 21h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $1,614 23h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $136 24h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $134 24h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? SELL No 65¢ $5 24h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? SELL No 65¢ $5 25h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? SELL No 65¢ $2 25h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? SELL No 65¢ $5 25h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? SELL No 65¢ $195 25h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? SELL No 65¢ $1 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79,388.60 · official $79,389.21 (match) · 481 history records