Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:03:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f2b…8775 sports 500 markets active 2h ago coverage 912d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,189 (-7%) realized −$1,167 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%250W / 249L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$105est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$86
14 days−$765
30 days−$681
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$195
other 13% −$327
world 7% −$503
crypto 3% −$161
economics 1% −$118
culture 1% +$71
politics 1% −$52
tech 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -15.4% -23.4% 45% 41% -16.0%
≤30d 169 -22.1% -29.6% 44% 43% -29.2%
≤90d 332 -4.5% -13.6% 51% 50% -22.7%
all 499 -4.9% -13.9% 50% 49% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 49% -16.0%
10% -22.2% 46% -24.0%
15% -29.7% 44% -31.4%
20% -36.6% 33% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$27 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

912d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$1,167
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses250 / 249
Est. fees paid−$105
Open positions1
Markets (closed)499 / 500
History coverage912d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 499 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $57 $35 −$22 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs FURIA (+2.5) Jun 21 $15 +$30 +197%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $160 +$105 +66%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $61 +$7 +12%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $95 −$11 -11%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $113 +$9 +8%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $17 −$16 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 −$4 -18%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $44 +$15 +34%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 20 $13 −$13 -99%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $18 +$1 +4%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $16 +$2 +15%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $76 −$60 -79%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $38 +$23 +60%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $7 +$2 +29%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $20 −$6 -28%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $46 −$18 -40%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $10 +$5 +50%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $25 +$14 +55%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 18 $15 +$10 +66%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $12 −$2 -16%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $17 +$14 +79%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 18 $5 +$6 +133%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $10 +$2 +15%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $55 −$23 -42%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 +$6 +73%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $9 +$11 +124%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$18 -57%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$6 -59%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$9 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $23 +$11 +48%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 +$9 +86%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$10 +101%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $15 +$9 +60%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 14 $7 +$3 +46%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 14 $10 +$4 +39%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $10 +$9 +84%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$7 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs FURIA (+2.5) SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $45 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $266 1h
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs FURIA (+2.5) BUY Team Falcons 33¢ $15 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $69 21h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $14 21h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $63 21h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $69 21h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $51 22h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $51 22h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $40 22h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $8 22h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $49 22h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $17 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 29¢ $17 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 61¢ $9 24h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $30 24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 58¢ $30 34h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $30 34h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 69¢ $13 34h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $13 34h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 58¢ $21 34h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $12 34h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 43¢ $10 45h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 64¢ $10 46h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 47¢ $10 47h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 68¢ $30 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $61 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 77¢ $7 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 59¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.65 · official $34.65 (match) · 1568 history records