Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:11:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f28…7145 crypto 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$163 (-18%) realized −$170 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate68%15W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$264now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$249
crypto 25% −$22
sports 17% +$87
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +4.7% -5.3% 63% 47% -37.6%
≤30d 22 +5.5% -4.6% 68% 45% -35.8%
≤90d 22 +5.5% -4.6% 68% 45% -35.8%
all 22 +5.5% -4.6% 68% 45% -35.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 45% -35.8%
10% -13.7% 32% -41.9%
15% -22.0% 27% -47.5%
20% -29.7% 27% -52.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 78% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$57 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$264
Realized−$170
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses15 / 7
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)22 / 28
History coverage7d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 46¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 12¢ 14¢ $50 $59 +$9 (+17%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 36¢ 38¢ $37 $39 +$2 (+4%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 52¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 +$73 +238%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $337 −$330 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $65 +$88 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$4 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $58 +$17 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $30 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $61 1h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 16h
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 12¢ $51 16h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 36¢ $38 17h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 0¢ $0 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $337 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $61 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $264.18 · official $264.19 (match) · 69 history records