Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:52:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f21…9314 politics 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 294d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%7W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 27% −$6
politics 26% $0
other 18% $0
finance 10% $0
sports 8% $0
culture 6% $0
tech 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -3.3% -12.5% 0% 0% -12.5%
≤30d 5 -0.6% -10.1% 20% 0% -11.2%
≤90d 11 -1.7% -11.1% 18% 0% -11.0%
all 41 -1.1% -10.6% 17% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 0% -10.1%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.7%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.6%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

294d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses7 / 34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage294d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $45 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $31 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $32 −$1 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $10 +$1 +5%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 24 $4 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $33 −$2 -6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $106 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 22 $39 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $33 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $16 −$1 -7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 18 $38 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $4 $0 +1%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 02 $7 $0 -6%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 23 $18 $0 -2%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 22 $34 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 22 $34 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 21 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 19 $34 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 19 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 18 $35 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 18 $35 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 17 $35 $0 +0%
Will Ayo Edebiri win the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Sep 17 $26 $0 +1%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 15 $11 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Sep 14 $9 $0 +2%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 14 $34 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 13 $33 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 13 $5 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Sep 13 $1 $0 -15%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 13 $33 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 09 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 08 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 02 $6 $0 -3%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 02 $6 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 38¢ $28 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $6 3h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $6 3h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $17 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $24 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $6 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 59¢ $31 27d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $31 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 32¢ $8 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $14 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $10 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 29d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 29d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 30d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 93¢ $7 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 89¢ $24 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 95¢ $33 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $7 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 30d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 32d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 32d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 70¢ $1 33d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 70¢ $5 33d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 70¢ $27 33d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 71¢ $19 33d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 71¢ $15 33d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $33 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 188 history records