Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:53:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0F 0x0f19…9613 sports 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$119 (+5%) realized +$119 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +341% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +268% what you keep after slip
Net edge+268%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate83%5W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$391per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$407
other 35% −$284
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+299.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +341.1% +299.1% 83% 50% -11.1%
≤30d 6 +341.1% +299.1% 83% 50% -11.1%
≤90d 6 +341.1% +299.1% 83% 50% -11.1%
all 6 +341.1% +299.1% 83% 50% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +299.1% 50% -11.1%
10% +260.9% 50% -19.6%
15% +226.1% 50% -27.3%
20% +194.1% 33% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% too few recent
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +341% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$312 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$119
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$391
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $600 +$11 +2%
Colombia to score first vs. DR Congo? Jun 24 $433 +$161 +37%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $319 +$126 +40%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $315 +$28 +9%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $182 +$108 +60%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $494 −$312 -63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $0 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $611 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Under 98¢ $600 1h
Colombia to score first vs. DR Congo? SELL Yes 99¢ $590 2h
Colombia to score first vs. DR Congo? BUY Yes 72¢ $433 3h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 71¢ $319 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 91¢ $319 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $290 5h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $182 8h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 31¢ $182 8h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $24 8h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 67¢ $24 8h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $25 10h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $470 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.40 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records